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Overshooting 1.5°C Climate Target Now 'Inevitable,' Says UN Chief

Overshooting 1.5°C Climate Target Now 'Inevitable,' Says UN Chief

Overshooting 1.5°C Climate Target Now 'Inevitable,' Says UN Chief
Above: U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres speaks at a news conference on Oct. 9, 2025 in New York City. Image copyright: Wang Fan/China News Service/VCG/Getty Images

The Spin

The climate crisis has reached a point of no return with devastating consequences now inevitable. Global warming is pushing the planet to the brink as every one of the last 10 years has been the hottest in recorded history. The 1.5°C threshold will certainly be overshot, triggering catastrophic impacts including floods, fires, heatwaves and the destruction of marine ecosystems.

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ThereAssertions isabout athe 97%causes chanceand thatsolutions therefor willan beexaggerated atclimate leastcrisis 2˚Cdemand scrutiny. Instances of globalclimate warmingchange byare 2100often overstated as tipping points even though the environment has adapted to past environmental shifts, accordingand human interventions. Economic growth fuels innovation to themitigate Metaculusimpacts, predictionwhile communityalarmist narratives exaggerate irreversible damage.

While the 1.5°C target faces temporary overshoot, returning to this goal by century's end remains achievable with immediate course correction. The focus must shift to making any overshoot as brief and minimal as possible to avoid tipping points, but it can still be done.

Metaculus Prediction

There is a 97% chance that there will be at least 2˚C of global warming by 2100, according to the Metaculus prediction community.


The Controversies



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© 2025 Improve the News Foundation.

All rights reserved.

Version 6.17.0