Vance Arrives in Israel, Visits US-Led Gaza Force Headquarters

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Above: U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance speaks during a press conference following a military briefing at the Civilian Military Coordination Center in Kiryat Gat, Israel, on Oct. 21, 2025. Image copyright: Nathan Howard-Pool/Getty Images

The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

Though the future will be challenging, it's essential that both Israel and Hamas stick to the ceasefire. Of course, many aspects of the deal are potentially problematic, but nothing is gained from returning to war. Hamas must follow through with what it agreed to, and, in turn, Israel should not escalate the situation.

CNN

Trump White House on X

Pro-Israel narrative

Hamas is saying one thing and doing another. With support from its backers in Doha and Ankara, Hamas believes that if it pays lip service to Trump's plan, it can do as it pleases and achieve the outcome it wants. Hamas seeks to keep its arms and stay in power in Gaza, and the group's main backers — which are nominally U.S. allies — have done nothing to curb this violent and dangerous behavior.

The Jerusalem Post The Jerusalem Post

Pro-Palestine narrative

As always, Israel is doing everything it can to undermine and sabotage the ceasefire so that it can return to its genocidal campaign. Already, Israel has killed scores of Palestinians under false pretenses, and the only reason the situation has not escalated is that Trump pressured Netanyahu to maintain the ceasefire. Israeli forces have violated the ceasefire repeatedly, and it is up to the United States and the international community to prevent further Palestinian bloodshed.

Middle East Eye

Metaculus Prediction

There's an 11% chance that the Gaza war will end and significant progress will be made towards a two-state solution before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.