Ecuador Releases Survivor of US Strike in Caribbean
The Spin
Anti-Trump narrative
Recent developments related to the repatriation of the survivors speak volumes about the nature of the Trump administration's alleged war on cartels. If they were actual narcoterrorists in an armed conflict with the U.S., they would be worthy of prosecution — and would not be treated like common deportees. That this comes as the U.S. Southern Command chief has announced his retirement only raises more questions.
Pro-Trump narrative
First and foremost, no fishermen would sail on a submersible — these men were indeed narcoterrorists attempting to smuggle fentanyl into the U.S — but keeping them in the U.S. would have several legal issues, including the need to turn over sensitive information and the risk of them being granted asylum. Given that all valuable information has already been extracted from them, it's better to let them return home and tell their experience.
Metaculus Prediction
There's a 45% chance that the U.S. will attack Venezuela before 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
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