Canada’s economy is faltering under Trump’s tough but effective trade policies, with unemployment at 7.1% — the highest in nearly a decade — and GDP shrinking as companies relocate south. Tariffs on steel, aluminum, autos, lumber, and soon heavy trucks are pressuring Ottawa to make real concessions instead of empty gestures. Trump’s approach is working: it’s strengthening U.S. industry, boosting revenue, and forcing Canada to the table ahead of the 2026 USMCA review.
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There's a 25% chance that the USMCA will be extended promptly at its July 2026 joint review, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
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