Prime Minister of Australia

Press conference - Canberra

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A defence treaty with PNG might seem like a win for Australia. But there are 4 crucial questions to answer

Australian

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The Saturday Paper

Pukpuk pact

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BBC News

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RichardMarlesMP

australian

Donald Trump

Tsai Ing-wen

CSIS

Marco Rubio

Ian Bremmer

Michael McCaul

Ministry of National Defense of Taiwan

Bonnie S. Glaser

Mark Milley

Charles Glaser

Denny Roy

Mike Studeman

Oriana Skylar Mastro

Henry Olsen

Lyle Goldstein

Bates Gill

Minghao Zhao

Metaculus

Joseph Wu

Jessica Chen Weiss

Global Guardian

FischerKing

CounterPoint Global

Kerry Brown

Adithia Kusno

Palmer Luckey

Ely Ratner

Philip Davidson

"China has zero interest to invade Taiwan and has never threatened to invade Taiwan."

“I think we’ll be just fine with China. China doesn’t want to do that [invade Taiwan].”

"There's no indications or warnings of anything imminent [China attacking Taiwan] at this time."

a P.L.A. takeover of Taiwan is not inevitable nor, perhaps, even likely in the next few years."

"I wouldn't say war is likely in the next few years, but I wouldn't say it's unlikely over the next couple of decades."

"I think they (the Chinese) have intention, but absolutely I think we can get to the end of this decade without them committing major aggression against Taiwan."

"[T]here might indeed be some greater willingness by Beijing to coerce (or even invade) Taiwan during a Trump administration."

"An invasion of Taiwan could happen within this decade."

"Global Guardian thinks that the window for conflict or a blockade is now open, with that window most likely remaining open between 2024 and 2028."

"The idea is that anything we are working on, anything that we are investing in, needs to be built with the assumption that sometime in 2027, China is going to move on Taiwan."

“Taiwan is clearly one of [China's] ambitions before that and I think the threat is manifest during this decade — in fact, in the next six years.”

Will China Invade Taiwan by 2030?

Lloyd Austin

Mike Minihan

Jacob Thornburg

Michael Brenner

Finian Cunningham

Scott Ritter

Ray Dalio

Kevin Rudd

Zhao Tong

Stanislaw Koziej

Robert S. Ross

Charles C. Krulak

Michael C. Horowitz

Joseph S. Nye

Qin Gang

Frank Kendall III

Thomas L. Friedman

Marco J. Lyons

Global Times

"I argue that war is unlikely to occur due to the deep economic ties underlying the great power politics between the two countries."

"War with either [Russia or China] is neither inevitable nor imminent."

"As things currently stand, the US is not prepared to fight and win a war with China over Taiwan."

"A war between the US and China today is no more inevitable than was war between the rising US and the declining United Kingdom a century ago."

"[T]he tension between the United States and China will grow, and competition will intensify; it is inevitable. War, however, is not."

"War is a risk, but it is not inevitable."

"The risk of a military conflict is very serious."

"The smallest misstep by either side [Taipei and Beijing] could ignite a U.S.-China war."

"China is preparing for a war and specifically for a war with the United States."

"The most proximate potential timeframe for war is in the next two years."

"My gut tells me we [the US] will fight [with China] in 2025."

Will There Be a US-China War?

Centre for Economics and Business Research

Capital Economics

S&P Global

Goldman Sachs

George Magnus

Eswar Prasad

Nathan Sheets

Desmond Lachman

Statista

Rob Subbaraman

JCER

Chris Giles

"China's nominal gross domestic product is unlikely to surpass that of the U.S. in the next few decades."

"This idea of China becoming the world's biggest economy may not happen, actually."

"China probably won't ever overtake the US economy on a sustained basis."

"The likelihood of the prediction that China's GDP will one day overtake that of the U.S. is declining."

"China is forecast to overtake the U.S. as the world’s largest economy by around 2035."

"China will overtake the US as the world's top economy in about 2035 with a high probability."

"[T]he size of China's economy in USD terms will overtake the US in 2028."

"China will overtake the United States to become the world's biggest economy in 2028."

Will China's GDP Overtake the US, And If So When?

Anthony Albanese

Adam Bandt

Peter Dutton

David Littleproud

"It is time to cancel AUKUS and start acting in our country's own interests."

"I've made it clear as nations with different histories, political systems and values, we will cooperate with China where we can, disagree where we must and engage in the national interest."

"Anthony Albanese is a weak leader who can’t stand up to bullies."

The Liberals will "[p]rogress the Coalition-initiated AUKUS partnership, the greatest defence initiative in a generation."

Australian Election: Where Do Candidates Stand on Foreign Policy?

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Papua New Guinea Prime Minister James Marape signed the Pukpuk Treaty at Parliament House in Canberra on Monday, establishing Australia's first new alliance in more than 70 years and only the third in the nation's history.</span

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Papua New Guinea Prime Minister James Marape signed the Pukpuk Treaty at Parliament House in Canberra on Monday, establishing Australia's first new alliance in more than 70 years and only the third in the nation's history.

The mutual defense treaty requires both nations to act together to meet common danger in the event of an armed attack, with provisions similar to Australia's ANZUS Treaty commitments with the United States and New Zealand.</span

The mutual defense treaty requires both nations to act together to meet common danger in the event of an armed attack, with provisions similar to Australia's ANZUS Treaty commitments with the United States and New Zealand.

The agreement creates a pathway for up to 10,000 Papua New Guineans to serve in the Australian Defence Force over time, while also allowing Australians to serve in PNG's military forces under the interoperability provisions.</span

Herald Sun

The agreement creates a pathway for up to 10,000 Papua New Guineans to serve in the Australian Defence Force over time, while also allowing Australians to serve in PNG's military forces under the interoperability provisions.

PNG Opposition Leader Douglas Tomuriesa has raised concerns about the treaty's impact on his nation's sovereignty and called for its cancellation, arguing that Australia is more worried about protecting itself than helping PNG citizens.</span

PNG Opposition Leader Douglas Tomuriesa has raised concerns about the treaty's impact on his nation's sovereignty and called for its cancellation, arguing that Australia is more worried about protecting itself than helping PNG citizens.

Both countries agreed not to undertake activities or enter agreements with third parties that would compromise the treaty's implementation, which observers view as aimed at limiting China's defense engagement with Port Moresby.</span

Both countries agreed not to undertake activities or enter agreements with third parties that would compromise the treaty's implementation, which observers view as aimed at limiting China's defense engagement with Port Moresby.

The treaty must be ratified by both parliaments, with the agreement expected to pass easily through Australia's parliament while facing more contentious debate in Papua New Guinea's legislative body.</span

The treaty must be ratified by both parliaments, with the agreement expected to pass easily through Australia's parliament while facing more contentious debate in Papua New Guinea's legislative body.

Australia, PNG Sign Historic Pukpuk Defense Treaty

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Australia, PNG Sign Historic Pukpuk Defense Treaty

Australia, andPNG PapuaSign NewHistoric GuineaPukpuk inkDefense historic defence treatyTreaty

The Controversies

Global

Trump

Milley

Glaser

Glaser

Ratner

Goldstein

Rubio

Guardian

Luckey

Davidson

Thornburg

Milley

Ritter

Krulak

Rudd

Nye

Tong

Friedman

III

Horowitz

Minihan

JCER

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Economics

Prasad

Sachs

Times

Subbaraman

Research

Bandt

Albanese

Littleproud

Dutton

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