Metaculus

Will OpenAI offer ChatGPT in China before 2026?

Centre for Economics and Business Research

Capital Economics

S&P Global

Goldman Sachs

Global Times

George Magnus

Eswar Prasad

Nathan Sheets

Desmond Lachman

Statista

Rob Subbaraman

JCER

Chris Giles

"China's nominal gross domestic product is unlikely to surpass that of the U.S. in the next few decades."

"This idea of China becoming the world's biggest economy may not happen, actually."

"China probably won't ever overtake the US economy on a sustained basis."

"The likelihood of the prediction that China's GDP will one day overtake that of the U.S. is declining."

"If China grows by a more moderate 4% over the long term, its GDP will exceed that of the US eight years later, in 2046."

"China is forecast to overtake the U.S. as the world’s largest economy by around 2035."

"China will overtake the US as the world's top economy in about 2035 with a high probability."

"[T]he size of China's economy in USD terms will overtake the US in 2028."

"China will overtake the United States to become the world's biggest economy in 2028."

Will China's GDP Overtake the US, And If So When?

Andrew Ng

Eric Schmidt

Chuck Schumer

Brad Smith

Nestor Maslej

Ruth Porat

Ylli Bajraktari

Bruegel

National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence

Brandon J. Weichert

Clement Delangue

Zhou Hongyi

Joseph Tsai

Huey-Meei Chang

Craig S. Smith

Jeffrey Ding

Ray Perrault

Susana Martinez

Niall Ferguson

Larry Elliot

Marcel Munch

Pavel Durov

John Rush

"I think, today, [China is] probably two years behind the top [AI] models [from the US]."

"Where China sits [in AI], I think, is very far behind the US."

"The United States is in a strong position to win the essential [AI] race with China."

"China will dominate AI."

"The combination with China's self-made chips + AI infrastructure stack will put China ahead of the US."

China would "undoubtedly come out on top [in the US-China AI race]."

"[I]t seems like the United States is really far ahead [when it comes to generative AI]."

"China will lead the world in AI development."

In 2025, "China will start to lead the AI race (as a consequence of leading the open-source AI race)."

Will China Surpass the US in AI?

China's Cyberspace Administration this week launched a two-month campaign to regulate online content that is deemed to promote excessively negative sentiments, targeting posts with messages such as "studying is useless" and "hard work is useless" across social media platforms.

Office of the Central Cyberspace Affairs Commission

BBC News

China's Cyberspace Administration this week launched a two-month campaign to regulate online content that is deemed to promote excessively negative sentiments, targeting posts with messages such as "studying is useless" and "hard work is useless" across social media platforms.

The campaign aims to create "a more civilized and rational online environment" by conducting comprehensive inspections of trending topics, content recommendations and comment sections on major platforms including Weibo, Kuaishou and Xiaohongshu.

The Straits Times

The campaign aims to create "a more civilized and rational online environment" by conducting comprehensive inspections of trending topics, content recommendations and comment sections on major platforms including Weibo, Kuaishou and Xiaohongshu.

The initiative seeks to remove content allegedly exploiting social topics to link identity, region or gender with stigma, and posts that are said to maliciously interpret social issues to promote defeatist or world-weary outlooks. Platforms that fail to comply face "strict punishments" from the administration.

The Hindu

The initiative seeks to remove content allegedly exploiting social topics to link identity, region or gender with stigma, and posts that are said to maliciously interpret social issues to promote defeatist or world-weary outlooks. Platforms that fail to comply face "strict punishments" from the administration.

Authorities will also regulate the spread of alleged rumors about the economy, finance and public policies, as well as purportedly fabricated information about disasters emergencies that may create social panic, along with "sensational conspiracy theories" that circulate widely online.

Authorities will also regulate the spread of alleged rumors about the economy, finance and public policies, as well as purportedly fabricated information about disasters emergencies that may create social panic, along with "sensational conspiracy theories" that circulate widely online.

In one example, content creator Hu Chenfeng reportedly had his social media accounts cleared of all posts after making viral comments classifying people as "Apple" or "Android," using the latter as a label for things he considered inferior. Chinese officials did not provide a reason for the removal.

In one example, content creator Hu Chenfeng reportedly had his social media accounts cleared of all posts after making viral comments classifying people as "Apple" or "Android," using the latter as a label for things he considered inferior. Chinese officials did not provide a reason for the removal.

The campaign comes amid trends among some Chinese youth embracing “lying flat” and “letting it rot” mindsets, rejecting intense work culture, and targets so-called “killjoys” — users who spread negativity or disrupt online discussions.

TechJuice

IHM STL

The campaign comes amid trends among some Chinese youth embracing “lying flat” and “letting it rot” mindsets, rejecting intense work culture, and targets so-called “killjoys” — users who spread negativity or disrupt online discussions.

Metaculus #0

Office of the Central Cyberspace Affairs Commission #

Global Times #

BBC News #

The Straits Times #

The Hindu #

TechJuice #

IHM STL #

China’s cyberspace campaign protects users by addressing harmful and negative online content that exaggerates fears or pessimism, including false rumors about disasters, public policies, and emergencies. It also targets exploitative celebrity gossip, vulgar livestreams, posts stoking regional or social tensions, and paid review schemes. By curbing these influences, the initiative aims to reduce negativity online and foster a safer, more positive environment, especially for young people.

China’s cyberspace campaign protects users by addressing harmful and negative online content that exaggerates fears or pessimism, including false rumors about disasters, public policies, and emergencies. It also targets exploitative celebrity gossip, vulgar livestreams, posts stoking regional or social tensions, and paid review schemes. By curbing these influences, the initiative aims to reduce negativity online and foster a safer, more positive environment, especially for young people.

China's cyberspace watchdog launches campaign to tackle illegal and false content on local online discussion sites

Chinadaily.com.cn

Chinadaily.com.cn #

Cyberspace body unveils drive to create better online ecosystem during holiday

China's economic transition is creating dangerous social instability with unemployment soaring, mental health crises exploding, and violent incidents multiplying. The surveillance state that once maintained order is cracking under pressure as millions face joblessness and despair. Performance legitimacy built on decades of growth is crumbling as inequality deepens and hope vanishes.

China's economic transition is creating dangerous social instability with unemployment soaring, mental health crises exploding, and violent incidents multiplying. The surveillance state that once maintained order is cracking under pressure as millions face joblessness and despair. Performance legitimacy built on decades of growth is crumbling as inequality deepens and hope vanishes.</span

South China Morning Post

South China Morning Post #

Worrying malaise: Chinas economic and social fortunes rest on its youth, but they are lying flat and letting it rot

Financial Times

Financial Times #

Can Xi keep a lid on China’s mounting social strains?

China Cracks Down on 'Negative' Social Media Content

Censorship

China

Media

Social conditions & trends

China’s cyberspace campaign protects users by tackling malicious incitement of negative sentiments online. It addresses false information about disasters, emergencies, public policies, and finance, as well as exploitative celebrity gossip, vulgar livestreams, sensationalized fandom attacks, and doxxing. By curbing content that exaggerates pessimism, nihilistic views, or social conflicts, the initiative reduces negativity and fosters a safer, more rational online environment, especially for youth.

China’s cyberspace campaign protects users by tackling malicious incitement of negative sentiments online. It addresses false information about disasters, emergencies, public policies, and finance, as well as exploitative celebrity gossip, vulgar livestreams, sensationalized fandom attacks, and doxxing. By curbing content that exaggerates pessimism, nihilistic views, or social conflicts, the initiative reduces negativity and fosters a safer, more rational online environment, especially for youth.

Chinas cyberspace regulator launches campaign targeting malicious incitement of negative sentiments

China’s campaign against so-called “killjoys” unfairly targets young people understandably embracing “lying flat” and “letting it rot” mindsets to cope with burnout, depression, and bleak prospects for the future. Instead of addressing the mental health and economic pressures driving these behaviors, authorities trample rights and punish online dissent, risking further disillusionment and social unrest. Analysts warn that continued suppression could worsen economic stagnation and trigger wider instability.

China’s campaign against so-called “killjoys” unfairly targets young people understandably embracing “lying flat” and “letting it rot” mindsets to cope with burnout, depression, and bleak prospects for the future. Instead of addressing the mental health and economic pressures driving these behaviors, authorities trample rights and punish online dissent, risking further disillusionment and social unrest. Analysts warn that continued suppression could worsen economic stagnation and trigger wider instability.

There's a 1% chance that OpenAI will offer ChatGPT in China before 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

There's a 1% chance that OpenAI will offer ChatGPT in China before 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Raul Ariano/Bloomberg/Getty Images