Metaculus

Will OpenAI offer ChatGPT in China before 2026?

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Eswar Prasad

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"China's nominal gross domestic product is unlikely to surpass that of the U.S. in the next few decades."

"This idea of China becoming the world's biggest economy may not happen, actually."

"China probably won't ever overtake the US economy on a sustained basis."

"The likelihood of the prediction that China's GDP will one day overtake that of the U.S. is declining."

"If China grows by a more moderate 4% over the long term, its GDP will exceed that of the US eight years later, in 2046."

"China is forecast to overtake the U.S. as the world’s largest economy by around 2035."

"China will overtake the US as the world's top economy in about 2035 with a high probability."

"[T]he size of China's economy in USD terms will overtake the US in 2028."

"China will overtake the United States to become the world's biggest economy in 2028."

Will China's GDP Overtake the US, And If So When?

Andrew Ng

Eric Schmidt

Chuck Schumer

Brad Smith

Nestor Maslej

Ruth Porat

Ylli Bajraktari

Bruegel

National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence

Brandon J. Weichert

Clement Delangue

Zhou Hongyi

Joseph Tsai

Huey-Meei Chang

Craig S. Smith

Jeffrey Ding

Ray Perrault

Susana Martinez

Niall Ferguson

Larry Elliot

Marcel Munch

Pavel Durov

John Rush

"I think, today, [China is] probably two years behind the top [AI] models [from the US]."

"Where China sits [in AI], I think, is very far behind the US."

"The United States is in a strong position to win the essential [AI] race with China."

"China will dominate AI."

"The combination with China's self-made chips + AI infrastructure stack will put China ahead of the US."

China would "undoubtedly come out on top [in the US-China AI race]."

"[I]t seems like the United States is really far ahead [when it comes to generative AI]."

"China will lead the world in AI development."

In 2025, "China will start to lead the AI race (as a consequence of leading the open-source AI race)."

Will China Surpass the US in AI?

China's Cyberspace Administration this week launched a two-month campaign to regulate online content that is deemed to promote excessively negative sentiments, targeting posts with messages such as "studying is useless" and "hard work is useless" across social media platforms.

BBC News

China's Cyberspace Administration this week launched a two-month campaign to regulate online content that is deemed to promote excessively negative sentiments, targeting posts with messages such as "studying is useless" and "hard work is useless" across social media platforms.

The campaign aims to create "a more civilized and rational online environment" by conducting comprehensive inspections of trending topics, content recommendations and comment sections on major platforms including Weibo, Kuaishou and Xiaohongshu.

The Straits Times

The campaign aims to create "a more civilized and rational online environment" by conducting comprehensive inspections of trending topics, content recommendations and comment sections on major platforms including Weibo, Kuaishou and Xiaohongshu.

The initiative seeks to remove content allegedly exploiting social topics to link identity, region or gender with stigma, and posts that are said to maliciously interpret social issues to promote defeatist or world-weary outlooks. Platforms that fail to comply face "strict punishments" from the administration.

The Hindu

The initiative seeks to remove content allegedly exploiting social topics to link identity, region or gender with stigma, and posts that are said to maliciously interpret social issues to promote defeatist or world-weary outlooks. Platforms that fail to comply face "strict punishments" from the administration.

Authorities will also regulate the spread of alleged rumors about the economy, finance and public policies, as well as purportedly fabricated information about disasters emergencies that may create social panic, along with "sensational conspiracy theories" that circulate widely online.

Authorities will also regulate the spread of alleged rumors about the economy, finance and public policies, as well as purportedly fabricated information about disasters emergencies that may create social panic, along with "sensational conspiracy theories" that circulate widely online.

In one example, content creator Hu Chenfeng reportedly had his social media accounts cleared of all posts after making viral comments classifying people as "Apple" or "Android," using the latter as a label for things he considered inferior — a comparison authorities viewed as reinforcing social divisions.

IHM STL

In one example, content creator Hu Chenfeng reportedly had his social media accounts cleared of all posts after making viral comments classifying people as "Apple" or "Android," using the latter as a label for things he considered inferior — a comparison authorities viewed as reinforcing social divisions.

The initiative comes amid economic challenges in China, including a slowdown in the property market, relatively high youth unemployment and concerns that younger generations may face more limited prospects than their parents.

The initiative comes amid economic challenges in China, including a slowdown in the property market, relatively high youth unemployment and concerns that younger generations may face more limited prospects than their parents.

Metaculus #0

China's Cyberspace Administration launched a two-month campaign in September 2025 to regulate online content that promotes negative sentiments, targeting posts with messages like 'studying is useless' and 'hard work is useless' across social media platforms.</span

The Straits Times #

BBC News #

China's Cyberspace Administration launched a two-month campaign in September 2025 to regulate online content that promotes negative sentiments, targeting posts with messages like 'studying is useless' and 'hard work is useless' across social media platforms.

The campaign aims to create a more civilized and rational online environment by conducting comprehensive inspections of trending topics, content recommendations and comment sections on major platforms including Weibo, Kuaishou and Xiaohongshu.</span

The Hindu #

The campaign aims to create a more civilized and rational online environment by conducting comprehensive inspections of trending topics, content recommendations and comment sections on major platforms including Weibo, Kuaishou and Xiaohongshu.

Content creator Hu Chenfeng had his social media accounts cleared of all posts after making viral comments classifying people as 'Apple' or 'Android,' with the latter describing inferior things, which authorities viewed as reinforcing social divisions.</span

IHM STL #

Content creator Hu Chenfeng had his social media accounts cleared of all posts after making viral comments classifying people as 'Apple' or 'Android,' with the latter describing inferior things, which authorities viewed as reinforcing social divisions.

The crackdown targets content that exploits social topics to associate identity, region or gender with stigmatizing information, as well as posts that maliciously interpret social phenomena to promote world-weary outlooks on life.</span

Global Times #

The crackdown targets content that exploits social topics to associate identity, region or gender with stigmatizing information, as well as posts that maliciously interpret social phenomena to promote world-weary outlooks on life.

Authorities will regulate the spread of rumors about the economy, finance and public policies, along with fabricated information about disasters and emergencies that could affect public safety and create panic among citizens.</span

Authorities will regulate the spread of rumors about the economy, finance and public policies, along with fabricated information about disasters and emergencies that could affect public safety and create panic among citizens.

The initiative reflects China's broader effort to maintain social stability amid economic challenges including a property crisis, high youth unemployment and concerns about younger generations facing worse prospects than their parents.</span

Chinadaily

Chinadaily #

The initiative reflects China's broader effort to maintain social stability amid economic challenges including a property crisis, high youth unemployment and concerns about younger generations facing worse prospects than their parents.

China's economic transition is creating dangerous social instability with unemployment soaring, mental health crises exploding, and violent incidents multiplying. The surveillance state that once maintained order is cracking under pressure as millions face joblessness and despair. Performance legitimacy built on decades of growth is crumbling as inequality deepens and hope vanishes.

China's economic transition is creating dangerous social instability with unemployment soaring, mental health crises exploding, and violent incidents multiplying. The surveillance state that once maintained order is cracking under pressure as millions face joblessness and despair. Performance legitimacy built on decades of growth is crumbling as inequality deepens and hope vanishes.</span

South China Morning Post

South China Morning Post #

Worrying malaise: Chinas economic and social fortunes rest on its youth, but they are lying flat and letting it rot

Financial Times

Financial Times #

Can Xi keep a lid on China’s mounting social strains?

China's crackdown on negative social media content protects citizens from harmful misinformation and toxic online behavior that spreads fear and division. The campaign targets fabricated rumors, violent content, and pessimistic messaging that undermines social harmony during important holidays. Regulating online spaces creates healthier digital environments.

China's crackdown on negative social media content protects citizens from harmful misinformation and toxic online behavior that spreads fear and division. The campaign targets fabricated rumors, violent content, and pessimistic messaging that undermines social harmony during important holidays. Regulating online spaces creates healthier digital environments.</span

Chinas cyberspace regulator launches campaign targeting malicious incitement of negative sentiments

China Cracks Down on 'Negative' Social Media Content

China Cracks Down on 'Negative' Social Media Content

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China Cracks Down on 'Negative' Social Media Content

China Cracks Down on 'Negative' Social Media Content

The Spin

The Controversies

JCER

Magnus

Economics

Prasad

Global

Sachs

Times

Subbaraman

Research

Tsai

Ding

Smith

Rush

Munch

Hongyi

Maslej

Martinez

Delangue

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