Metaculus

Will OpenAI offer ChatGPT in China before 2026?

Centre for Economics and Business Research

Capital Economics

S&P Global

Goldman Sachs

Global Times

George Magnus

Eswar Prasad

Nathan Sheets

Desmond Lachman

Statista

Rob Subbaraman

JCER

Chris Giles

"China's nominal gross domestic product is unlikely to surpass that of the U.S. in the next few decades."

"This idea of China becoming the world's biggest economy may not happen, actually."

"China probably won't ever overtake the US economy on a sustained basis."

"The likelihood of the prediction that China's GDP will one day overtake that of the U.S. is declining."

"If China grows by a more moderate 4% over the long term, its GDP will exceed that of the US eight years later, in 2046."

"China is forecast to overtake the U.S. as the world’s largest economy by around 2035."

"China will overtake the US as the world's top economy in about 2035 with a high probability."

"[T]he size of China's economy in USD terms will overtake the US in 2028."

"China will overtake the United States to become the world's biggest economy in 2028."

Will China's GDP Overtake the US, And If So When?

Andrew Ng

Eric Schmidt

Chuck Schumer

Brad Smith

Nestor Maslej

Ruth Porat

Ylli Bajraktari

Bruegel

National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence

Brandon J. Weichert

Clement Delangue

Zhou Hongyi

Joseph Tsai

Huey-Meei Chang

Craig S. Smith

Jeffrey Ding

Ray Perrault

Susana Martinez

Niall Ferguson

Larry Elliot

Marcel Munch

Pavel Durov

John Rush

"I think, today, [China is] probably two years behind the top [AI] models [from the US]."

"Where China sits [in AI], I think, is very far behind the US."

"The United States is in a strong position to win the essential [AI] race with China."

"China will dominate AI."

"The combination with China's self-made chips + AI infrastructure stack will put China ahead of the US."

China would "undoubtedly come out on top [in the US-China AI race]."

"[I]t seems like the United States is really far ahead [when it comes to generative AI]."

"China will lead the world in AI development."

In 2025, "China will start to lead the AI race (as a consequence of leading the open-source AI race)."

Will China Surpass the US in AI?

China's Cyberspace Administration launched a two-month campaign in September 2025 to regulate online content that promotes negative sentiments, targeting posts with messages like 'studying is useless' and 'hard work is useless' across social media platforms.</span

The Straits Times

BBC News

China's Cyberspace Administration launched a two-month campaign in September 2025 to regulate online content that promotes negative sentiments, targeting posts with messages like 'studying is useless' and 'hard work is useless' across social media platforms.

The campaign aims to create a more civilized and rational online environment by conducting comprehensive inspections of trending topics, content recommendations and comment sections on major platforms including Weibo, Kuaishou and Xiaohongshu.</span

The Hindu

The campaign aims to create a more civilized and rational online environment by conducting comprehensive inspections of trending topics, content recommendations and comment sections on major platforms including Weibo, Kuaishou and Xiaohongshu.

Content creator Hu Chenfeng had his social media accounts cleared of all posts after making viral comments classifying people as 'Apple' or 'Android,' with the latter describing inferior things, which authorities viewed as reinforcing social divisions.</span

IHM STL

Content creator Hu Chenfeng had his social media accounts cleared of all posts after making viral comments classifying people as 'Apple' or 'Android,' with the latter describing inferior things, which authorities viewed as reinforcing social divisions.

The crackdown targets content that exploits social topics to associate identity, region or gender with stigmatizing information, as well as posts that maliciously interpret social phenomena to promote world-weary outlooks on life.</span

The crackdown targets content that exploits social topics to associate identity, region or gender with stigmatizing information, as well as posts that maliciously interpret social phenomena to promote world-weary outlooks on life.

Authorities will regulate the spread of rumors about the economy, finance and public policies, along with fabricated information about disasters and emergencies that could affect public safety and create panic among citizens.</span

Authorities will regulate the spread of rumors about the economy, finance and public policies, along with fabricated information about disasters and emergencies that could affect public safety and create panic among citizens.

The initiative reflects China's broader effort to maintain social stability amid economic challenges including a property crisis, high youth unemployment and concerns about younger generations facing worse prospects than their parents.</span

Chinadaily

The initiative reflects China's broader effort to maintain social stability amid economic challenges including a property crisis, high youth unemployment and concerns about younger generations facing worse prospects than their parents.

China Cracks Down on 'Negative' Social Media Content

China launchesCracks campaignDown toon keep'Negative' killjoysSocial offMedia the internetContent

The Controversies

JCER

Magnus

Economics

Prasad

Global

Sachs

Times

Subbaraman

Research

Tsai

Ding

Smith

Rush

Munch

Hongyi

Maslej

Martinez

Delangue

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China Cracks Down on 'Negative' Social Media Content

China launchesCracks campaignDown toon keep'Negative' killjoysSocial offMedia the internetContent

The Controversies

JCER

Magnus

Economics

Prasad

Global

Sachs

Times

Subbaraman

Research

Tsai

Ding

Smith

Rush

Munch

Hongyi

Maslej

Martinez

Delangue

Articles on this story

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