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"China has zero interest to invade Taiwan and has never threatened to invade Taiwan."

“I think we’ll be just fine with China. China doesn’t want to do that [invade Taiwan].”

"There's no indications or warnings of anything imminent [China attacking Taiwan] at this time."

a P.L.A. takeover of Taiwan is not inevitable nor, perhaps, even likely in the next few years."

"I wouldn't say war is likely in the next few years, but I wouldn't say it's unlikely over the next couple of decades."

"I think they (the Chinese) have intention, but absolutely I think we can get to the end of this decade without them committing major aggression against Taiwan."

"[T]here might indeed be some greater willingness by Beijing to coerce (or even invade) Taiwan during a Trump administration."

"An invasion of Taiwan could happen within this decade."

"Global Guardian thinks that the window for conflict or a blockade is now open, with that window most likely remaining open between 2024 and 2028."

"The idea is that anything we are working on, anything that we are investing in, needs to be built with the assumption that sometime in 2027, China is going to move on Taiwan."

“Taiwan is clearly one of [China's] ambitions before that and I think the threat is manifest during this decade — in fact, in the next six years.”

Will China Invade Taiwan by 2030?

Vessels from China and the Philippines collided on Tuesday in the disputed Scarborough Shoal located in the South China Sea, with both sides attributing blame to the other amid rising tensions between the two countries.

Vessels from China and the Philippines collided on Tuesday in the disputed Scarborough Shoal located in the South China Sea, with both sides attributing blame to the other amid rising tensions between the two countries.

The Philippine Coast Guard claimed that a Chinese vessel attacked the Filipino ship BRP Datu Gumbay Piang at roughly 9:14 a.m., causing “significant damage” to the ship’s bridge, captain’s cabin, electrical circuits and air conditioning units with its water cannon.

The Philippine Coast Guard claimed that a Chinese vessel attacked the Filipino ship BRP Datu Gumbay Piang at roughly 9:14 a.m., causing “significant damage” to the ship’s bridge, captain’s cabin, electrical circuits and air conditioning units with its water cannon.

Commodore Jay Tarriela, spokesperson for the Philippine Coast Guard on the West Philippine Sea, added that the attack caused injury to at least one sailor, with images showing what appeared to be a lacerated ear.

Commodore Jay Tarriela, spokesperson for the Philippine Coast Guard on the West Philippine Sea, added that the attack caused injury to at least one sailor, with images showing what appeared to be a lacerated ear.

The China Coast Guard, however, accused the Philippines of initiating the clash, alleging that 10 Filipino government vessels had entered the vicinity of the shoal, which it referred to as Huangyan Island, before ramming a Chinese Coast Guard vessel at approximately 10 a.m. after ignoring “repeated” warnings.

The China Coast Guard, however, accused the Philippines of initiating the clash, alleging that 10 Filipino government vessels had entered the vicinity of the shoal, which it referred to as Huangyan Island, before ramming a Chinese Coast Guard vessel at approximately 10 a.m. after ignoring “repeated” warnings.

The incident occurred only six days after China announced its intention to establish the Huangyan Dao national nature reserve at Scarborough Shoal, an act that the Philippines pledged to issue a formal diplomatic complaint against and condemned as “illegitimate and unlawful.”

The incident occurred only six days after China announced its intention to establish the Huangyan Dao national nature reserve at Scarborough Shoal, an act that the Philippines pledged to issue a formal diplomatic complaint against and condemned as “illegitimate and unlawful.”

The United States, meanwhile, rejected China’s plan to designate Scarborough Shoal as a nature reserve as a “coercive attempt” to advance territorial claims in the South China Sea. The U.S. then called on China to abide by the 2016 Arbitral Tribunal’s decision regarding Filipino fishing rights.

The United States, meanwhile, rejected China’s plan to designate Scarborough Shoal as a nature reserve as a “coercive attempt” to advance territorial claims in the South China Sea. The U.S. then called on China to abide by the 2016 Arbitral Tribunal’s decision regarding Filipino fishing rights.

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One crew member from the Philippine vessel sustained injuries from shattered glass caused by the water cannon attack, with photos showing what appeared to be a lacerated ear, according to Philippine Coast Guard spokesman Commodore Jay Tarriela.</span

One crew member from the Philippine vessel sustained injuries from shattered glass caused by the water cannon attack, with photos showing what appeared to be a lacerated ear, according to Philippine Coast Guard spokesman Commodore Jay Tarriela.

China's Coast Guard claimed the Philippine ship deliberately rammed a Chinese vessel and accused more than 10 Philippine government ships of illegally entering China's territorial waters around what Beijing calls Huangyan Dao.</span

China's Coast Guard claimed the Philippine ship deliberately rammed a Chinese vessel and accused more than 10 Philippine government ships of illegally entering China's territorial waters around what Beijing calls Huangyan Dao.

The incident occurred six days after China announced the establishment of a national nature reserve at Scarborough Shoal, which the Philippines condemned as an illegitimate action infringing upon its sovereignty and jurisdiction.</span

The incident occurred six days after China announced the establishment of a national nature reserve at Scarborough Shoal, which the Philippines condemned as an illegitimate action infringing upon its sovereignty and jurisdiction.

The United States rejected China's nature reserve designation as a coercive attempt to advance territorial claims in the South China Sea and called on China to abide by the 2016 Arbitral Tribunal decision regarding Filipino fishing rights.</span

The United States rejected China's nature reserve designation as a coercive attempt to advance territorial claims in the South China Sea and called on China to abide by the 2016 Arbitral Tribunal decision regarding Filipino fishing rights.

China seized control of the fish-rich Scarborough Shoal from the Philippines after a lengthy standoff in 2012, and more than 60 percent of global maritime trade passes through the South China Sea waterway.</span

China seized control of the fish-rich Scarborough Shoal from the Philippines after a lengthy standoff in 2012, and more than 60 percent of global maritime trade passes through the South China Sea waterway.

The water cannon attack represents another escalation in China's aggressive campaign to control disputed waters that belong to the Philippines under international law. Beijing's so-called nature reserve is nothing more than a transparent pretext for occupation, designed to prevent Filipino fishermen from accessing their traditional fishing grounds. China continues to violate the binding 2016 arbitral ruling and undermine regional stability through these coercive tactics.

The water cannon attack represents another escalation in China's aggressive campaign to control disputed waters that belong to the Philippines under international law. Beijing's so-called nature reserve is nothing more than a transparent pretext for occupation, designed to prevent Filipino fishermen from accessing their traditional fishing grounds. China continues to violate the binding 2016 arbitral ruling and undermine regional stability through these coercive tactics.

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China-Philippines Ships Collide Near Disputed Scarborough Shoal

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Accidents

The establishment of a nature reserve at Huangyan Dao is a legitimate environmental protection within China’s sovereign territory, a sovereignty the Philippines violated when it illegally entered Chinese waters and, despite solemn warnings, rammed a Chinese Coast Guard vessel, necessitating the defensive actions taken thereafter.

The establishment of a nature reserve at Huangyan Dao is a legitimate environmental protection within China’s sovereign territory, a sovereignty the Philippines violated when it illegally entered Chinese waters and, despite solemn warnings, rammed a Chinese Coast Guard vessel, necessitating the defensive actions taken thereafter.

The water cannon attack on a Filipino ship is yet another escalation in China’s aggressive campaign to seize control of territorial waters that rightfully belong to the Philippines under international law. Despite the threat of further Chinese attacks, the Philippine Coast Guard will continue to defend the nation’s rights in the West Philippine Sea and beyond.

The water cannon attack on a Filipino ship is yet another escalation in China’s aggressive campaign to seize control of territorial waters that rightfully belong to the Philippines under international law. Despite the threat of further Chinese attacks, the Philippine Coast Guard will continue to defend the nation’s rights in the West Philippine Sea and beyond.

The move by China to designate the Scarborough Shoal as a natural reserve is little more than a ruse to further its territorial ambitions in the South China Sea at the expense of its neighbours. The U.S. opposes this and other similar CCP schemes and calls upon China to respect and comply with the decision of the 2016 Arbitral Tribunal.

The move by China to designate the Scarborough Shoal as a natural reserve is little more than a ruse to further its territorial ambitions in the South China Sea at the expense of its neighbours. The U.S. opposes this and other similar CCP schemes and calls upon China to respect and comply with the decision of the 2016 Arbitral Tribunal.

There is a 15% chance that armed conflict between the Philippines and the People's Republic of China (PRC) will cause at least 100 deaths before 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

There is a 15% chance that armed conflict between the Philippines and the People's Republic of China (PRC) will cause at least 100 deaths before 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

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