Tensions flare as Chinese and Philippine ships collide near disputed shoal in South China Sea

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"I don't think that Xi Jinping is going to attack Taiwan any time soon."

"Beijing's main goal is to deter Taiwan independence, rather than realize military reunification."

"There's no indications or warnings of anything imminent [China attacking Taiwan] at this time."

A Chinese takeover of Taiwan "is not inevitable nor, perhaps, even likely in the next few years."

"My thought is that perhaps this is not a time for [China] to consider a major invasion of Taiwan."

"[T]here might indeed be some greater willingness by Beijing to coerce (or even invade) Taiwan during a Trump administration."

China is "more likely to resort to the use of force" if it "perceives a higher likelihood of U.S. support of Taiwan independence."

"An invasion of Taiwan could happen within this decade."

"I think the threat [of China seizing Taiwan] is manifest during this decade, in fact in the next six years."

"Xi's team, reason, and opportunity are all aligned for [a] 2025 [invasion of Taiwan]."

Will China Invade Taiwan?

Vessels from China and the Philippines collided on Tuesday in the disputed Scarborough Shoal located in the South China Sea, with both sides attributing blame to the other amid rising tensions between the two countries.

Fox 28 Spokane

Al Jazeera

Vessels from China and the Philippines collided on Tuesday in the disputed Scarborough Shoal located in the South China Sea, with both sides attributing blame to the other amid rising tensions between the two countries.

The Philippine Coast Guard claimed that a Chinese vessel attacked the Filipino ship BRP Datu Gumbay Piang at roughly 9:14 a.m., causing “significant damage” to the ship’s bridge, captain’s cabin, electrical circuits and air conditioning units with its water cannon.

Philippine Coast Guard

The Philippine Coast Guard claimed that a Chinese vessel attacked the Filipino ship BRP Datu Gumbay Piang at roughly 9:14 a.m., causing “significant damage” to the ship’s bridge, captain’s cabin, electrical circuits and air conditioning units with its water cannon.

Commodore Jay Tarriela, spokesperson for the Philippine Coast Guard on the West Philippine Sea, added that the attack caused injury to at least one sailor, with images showing what appeared to be a lacerated ear.

Commodore Jay Tarriela, spokesperson for the Philippine Coast Guard on the West Philippine Sea, added that the attack caused injury to at least one sailor, with images showing what appeared to be a lacerated ear.

The China Coast Guard, however, accused the Philippines of initiating the clash, alleging that 10 Filipino government vessels had entered the vicinity of the shoal, which it referred to as Huangyan Island, before ramming a Chinese Coast Guard vessel at approximately 10 a.m. after ignoring “repeated” warnings.

China Coast Guard

The China Coast Guard, however, accused the Philippines of initiating the clash, alleging that 10 Filipino government vessels had entered the vicinity of the shoal, which it referred to as Huangyan Island, before ramming a Chinese Coast Guard vessel at approximately 10 a.m. after ignoring “repeated” warnings.

The incident occurred only six days after China announced its intention to establish the Huangyan Dao national nature reserve at Scarborough Shoal, an act that the Philippines pledged to issue a formal diplomatic complaint against and condemned as “illegitimate and unlawful.”

The State Council of the People's Republic of China

Department of Foreign Affairs (Philippines)

The incident occurred only six days after China announced its intention to establish the Huangyan Dao national nature reserve at Scarborough Shoal, an act that the Philippines pledged to issue a formal diplomatic complaint against and condemned as “illegitimate and unlawful.”

The United States, meanwhile, rejected China’s plan to designate Scarborough Shoal as a nature reserve as a “coercive attempt” to advance territorial claims in the South China Sea. The U.S. then called on China to abide by the 2016 Arbitral Tribunal’s decision regarding Filipino fishing rights.

Trump State Department

The United States, meanwhile, rejected China’s plan to designate Scarborough Shoal as a nature reserve as a “coercive attempt” to advance territorial claims in the South China Sea. The U.S. then called on China to abide by the 2016 Arbitral Tribunal’s decision regarding Filipino fishing rights.

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China's establishment of a nature reserve at Huangyan Dao represents legitimate environmental protection within its sovereign territory. The Philippine vessels illegally invaded Chinese territorial waters despite solemn warnings, forcing Chinese coast guard ships to take necessary control measures. The collision occurred only after the Philippine ship deliberately rammed the Chinese vessel, making China's defensive actions entirely justified under international maritime law.

China's establishment of a nature reserve at Huangyan Dao represents legitimate environmental protection within its sovereign territory. The Philippine vessels illegally invaded Chinese territorial waters despite solemn warnings, forcing Chinese coast guard ships to take necessary control measures. The collision occurred only after the Philippine ship deliberately rammed the Chinese vessel, making China's defensive actions entirely justified under international maritime law.

China Coast Guard Spokesperson's Statement

The water cannon attack represents another escalation in China's aggressive campaign to control disputed waters that belong to the Philippines under international law. Beijing's so-called nature reserve is nothing more than a transparent pretext for occupation, designed to prevent Filipino fishermen from accessing their traditional fishing grounds. China continues to violate the binding 2016 arbitral ruling and undermine regional stability through these coercive tactics.

The water cannon attack represents another escalation in China's aggressive campaign to control disputed waters that belong to the Philippines under international law. Beijing's so-called nature reserve is nothing more than a transparent pretext for occupation, designed to prevent Filipino fishermen from accessing their traditional fishing grounds. China continues to violate the binding 2016 arbitral ruling and undermine regional stability through these coercive tactics.

DFA Statement on China's Recent Approval of the Establishment of A Nature Reserve in Bajo De Masinloc

The US-China Conflict

China-Philippines Ships Collide Near Disputed Scarborough Shoal

China

Philippines

Accidents

The establishment of a nature reserve at Huangyan Dao is a legitimate environmental protection within China’s sovereign territory, a sovereignty the Philippines violated when it illegally entered Chinese waters and, despite solemn warnings, rammed a Chinese Coast Guard vessel, necessitating the defensive actions taken thereafter.

The establishment of a nature reserve at Huangyan Dao is a legitimate environmental protection within China’s sovereign territory, a sovereignty the Philippines violated when it illegally entered Chinese waters and, despite solemn warnings, rammed a Chinese Coast Guard vessel, necessitating the defensive actions taken thereafter.

China to establish Huangyan Dao national nature reserve

The water cannon attack on a Filipino ship is yet another escalation in China’s aggressive campaign to seize control of territorial waters that rightfully belong to the Philippines under international law. Despite the threat of further Chinese attacks, the Philippine Coast Guard will continue to defend the nation’s rights in the West Philippine Sea and beyond.

The water cannon attack on a Filipino ship is yet another escalation in China’s aggressive campaign to seize control of territorial waters that rightfully belong to the Philippines under international law. Despite the threat of further Chinese attacks, the Philippine Coast Guard will continue to defend the nation’s rights in the West Philippine Sea and beyond.

jaytaryela

The move by China to designate the Scarborough Shoal as a natural reserve is little more than a ruse to further its territorial ambitions in the South China Sea at the expense of its neighbours. The U.S. opposes this and other similar CCP schemes and calls upon China to respect and comply with the decision of the 2016 Arbitral Tribunal.

The move by China to designate the Scarborough Shoal as a natural reserve is little more than a ruse to further its territorial ambitions in the South China Sea at the expense of its neighbours. The U.S. opposes this and other similar CCP schemes and calls upon China to respect and comply with the decision of the 2016 Arbitral Tribunal.

On Scarborough Reef

There is a 15% chance that armed conflict between the Philippines and the People's Republic of China (PRC) will cause at least 100 deaths before 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

There is a 15% chance that armed conflict between the Philippines and the People's Republic of China (PRC) will cause at least 100 deaths before 2050, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

China-Philippines Ships Collide Near Disputed Scarborough Shoal

China-Philippines Ships Collide Near Disputed Scarborough Shoal

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China-Philippines Ships Collide Near Disputed Scarborough Shoal

China-Philippines Ships Collide Near Disputed Scarborough Shoal

The Spin

Metaculus Prediction

The Controversies

Mearsheimer

Zhao

Milley

Glaser

Ing-wen

Goldstein

Sun

Rubio

Davidson

Minihan

Go Deeper

Articles on this story

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