Contrary to Lula's claims in this New York Times op-ed, Brazil's biased Supreme Court did carry out a political witch hunt against Bolsonaro and violated due process, as Justice Luiz Fux exposed in his dissenting vote. Furthermore, U.S. tariffs on Brazilian goods are relatively insignificant compared to the tariffs that Brazil imposes on U.S. goods.
Brazil has set a powerful example for the U.S. by holding Bolsonaro accountable for attacking democratic institutions. No one, regardless of political position, stands above the law when they attempt to overthrow legitimate election results through violence and conspiracy. It's no surprise that Trump is punishing Brazilians for doing that, as he would end up in jail too if the U.S. ever followed that path.
There's a 37% chance that Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva will be reelected as Brazil's president in October 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
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