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Report: NATO Military Spending Increase Could Add 1.3B Tons of Emissions

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1 day ago

Above: Hellenic Air Force F-16 jet flies over Thessaloniki during a military parade. Image copyright: Nicolas Economou/NurPhoto/Getty Images

story last updated 22 hrs ago

The Spin

Left narrative

Rising NATO and global military spending threaten both the planet and human security. The $2.6 trillion NATO surge alone could fund climate adaptation, hunger relief and development for years, yet it will sharply increase emissions — potentially more than Brazil's annual output. Every dollar poured into arms deepens instability, fuels emissions, and diverts resources from genuine security. Peace, diplomacy and sustainable development — not bigger militaries — are the real path to safety and a livable planet.

Scientists for Global Responsibility United Nations

Right narrative

Critics wring their hands over emissions while ignoring the basic truth — a weak NATO is far deadlier to humanity than CO2. Calls to slash defense for "climate finance" are naïve when Russia and China are arming at record pace. The military's job is to win wars, not virtue-signal with electric tanks that stall on the battlefield. Green mandates risk soldiers' lives and embolden aggressors. Real security comes from strength and deterrence — without it, there won’t be a planet safe enough to debate carbon footprints.

Matt Whitlock on X Politico X

Narrative C

NATO's Climate Change and Security Action Plan shows the alliance can strengthen defense while addressing climate risks. By targeting a 45% emissions cut by 2030, investing in innovative green technologies, energy-efficient bases, sustainable fuels and resilient infrastructure, and standardizing emissions measurement, NATO proves climate and operational readiness are not mutually exclusive. Framing climate as a security challenge ensures forces remain capable without compromising the planet.

NATO Review Forbes

Metaculus Prediction

There's an 8% chance that there will be a direct conflict between Russia and any NATO member state before 2027, according to the Metaculus community prediction.