While the U.S. will not commit to putting troops on the ground in Ukraine, it will help coordinate European efforts to provide security guarantees, likely in the form of air support for such arrangements. These efforts are all bringing peace closer to Ukraine.
Despite all the talk of security guarantees, it is unlikely that they will amount to anything substantial, given that European countries are unlikely to be willing to police Ukraine's 600-mile-long frontlines and that controlling Ukraine's skies will be a complicated endeavour. Then there's the question of whether Putin would even accept any of these arrangements.
There's a 50% chance that there will be a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine by August 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
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