UK Inflation Hits 19-Month High at 3.8% in July

Published AUG 20 2025

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Above: A shopping high street in Croydon, London on Aug. 19, 2025. Image credit: Chris Ratcliffe/Bloomberg/Getty Images

The Spin

Chancellor Rachel Reeves has made tough decisions in order to stabilize the economy after 14 years of Tory chaos. Despite a short-term rise, inflation remains far below the 11.1% seen under the previous government and is unlikely to set off any alarm bells. Through the BoE's quantitative easing and the government's Plan for Change, working people will be better off under this Labour government.

BBC News ING Think

Reckless government policies and monetary indecision by the BoE are the cause of this spike in inflation. Reeves inherited a manageable 2% inflation rate and has since nearly doubled inflationit through misguided fiscal decisions, while the Bank's recent 5-4 split decision showshighlights monetary uncertainty. British people are suffering because of poor decision-making at the highest levels of office.

Mel Stride on X The Telegraph

Metaculus Prediction

There's a 50% chance that in December 2025, the U.K. national debt (excluding public sector banks) will be 103% of gross domestic product (GDP), according to the Metaculus prediction community.