UK Inflation Hits 19-Month High at 3.8% in July

story

AUG 20

Above: A shopping high street in Croydon, London on Aug. 19, 2025. Image copyright: Chris Ratcliffe/Bloomberg/Getty Images

story last updated AUG 20

The Spin

Pro-government narrative

Chancellor Rachel Reeves has made tough decisions to stabilize the economy after 14 years of Tory chaos. Despite a short-term rise, inflation remains far below the 11.1% seen under the previous government and is unlikely to set off any alarm bells. Through the BoE's quantitative easing and the government's Plan for Change, working people will be better off under this Labour government.

BBC News ING Think

Government-critical narrative

Reckless government policies and monetary indecision by the BoE are the cause of this spike in inflation. Reeves inherited a manageable 2% inflation rate and has since nearly doubled it through misguided fiscal decisions, while the Bank's recent 5-4 split decision highlights monetary uncertainty. British people are suffering because of poor decision-making at the highest levels of office.

Mel Stride on X The Telegraph

Metaculus Prediction

There's a 50% chance that in December 2025, the U.K. national debt (excluding public sector banks) will be 103% of gross domestic product (GDP), according to the Metaculus prediction community.