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Poilievre Wins Alberta By-Election, Returns to Commons

Poilievre Wins Alberta By-Election, Returns to Commons
Above: Pierre Poilievre speaks to his supporters alongside his wife, Anaida Poilievre, on April 29, 2025, in Ottawa, Canada. Image copyright: Minas Panagiotakis/Getty Images

The Spin

Right narrative

Poilievre's decisive victory proves his political resilience and sets the stage for effective opposition leadership. His 80% win in Battle River-Crowfoot demonstrates strong Conservative support and positions him to challenge Carney's policies on affordability, crime and fiscal responsibility when Parliament resumes.

Left narrative

This was a predictable outcome in Canada's safest Conservative riding, which doesn't reflect the broader electoral appeal. Poilievre remains a polarizing figure who lost his longtime seat and faces significant challenges, including poor polling among women and questions about his ability to defeat the Liberals nationally.

Metaculus Prediction

There's a 0.1% chance that Pierre Poilievre will become Prime Minister of Canada before 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.


Public Figures


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© 2025 Improve the News Foundation. All rights reserved.Version 6.15.2

© 2025 Improve the News Foundation.

All rights reserved.

Version 6.15.2