Bolsonaro's house arrest represents another escalation by an authoritarian judge who's weaponizing Brazil's institutions against political opposition. Justice Moraes has repeatedly violated basic due process rights and free speech protections, banning people from speaking or imprisoning them for criticism. The timing right after US sanctions shows this is retaliation, not justice.
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There's a 20% chance that Jair Bolsonaro will be imprisoned before September 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.