This house arrest marks another escalation by the most powerful Supreme Court justice in Brazil and the country's de facto dictator in a bid to use Brazilian institutions to silence political dissent. His behavior also suggests a self-destructive intent to provoke the Trump administration after being sanctioned under the Global Magnitsky Act.
From banning X in Brazil to this latest house arrest, Moraes continues to prove that no one is above the law. The judge's fight against far-right populism is unlikely to cease anytime soon, as Bolsonaro continues flouting his vitriolic politics in contravention of Brazilian law and sovereignty.
There's a 20% chance that Jair Bolsonaro will be imprisoned before September 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.