Brazil's Supreme Court Orders House Arrest for Bolsonaro

Above: A motorcade in Brasília to protest order for house arrest for Jair Bolsonaro on Aug. 4, 2025. Image copyright: Mateus Bonomi/Getty Images

The Spin

Right narrative

This house arrest marks another escalation by the most powerful Supreme Court justice in Brazil and the country's de facto dictator in a bid to use Brazilian institutions to silence political dissent. His behavior also suggests a self-destructive intent to provoke the Trump administration after being sanctioned under the Global Magnitsky Act.

Left narrative

From banning X in Brazil to this latest house arrest, Moraes continues to prove that no one is above the law. The judge's fight against far-right populism is unlikely to cease anytime soon, as Bolsonaro continues flouting his vitriolic politics in contravention of Brazilian law and sovereignty.

Metaculus Prediction

There's a 20% chance that Jair Bolsonaro will be imprisoned before September 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.



Political split

LEFT

RIGHT

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