Bolsonaro's house arrest represents another escalation by an authoritarian judge who's weaponizing Brazil's institutions against political opposition. Justice Moraes has repeatedly violated basic due process rights and free speech protections, banning people from speaking or imprisoning them for criticism. The timing right after US sanctions shows this is retaliation, not justice.
This court order reasserts that any attempt to blackmail Brazil and its institutions are doomed to fail. Bolsonaro is being arrested gradually, likely to avoid a major shock, even as he continues to repeat his unlawful conduct and incites foreign leaders to put pressure on Brazilian authorities, in a clear breach of the country's sovereignty.
The house arrest follows Bolsonaro's clear violations of court orders designed to prevent obstruction of justice during his coup trial. Justice Moraes appropriately enforced restrictions after Bolsonaro used Sunday rallies to circumvent social media bans and continue attempts to coerce the Supreme Court. The law applies equally to all defendants regardless of political status.
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There's a 20% chance that Jair Bolsonaro will be imprisoned before September 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.