Newsweek

China Builds New Structure in Disputed Waters Claimed by US Ally

Guardian

How China's artificial islands led to tension in the South China Sea

Independent

Satellite images reveal alarming scale of Chinas military build-up in disputed waters

Metaculus

Will China settle its South China Sea maritime boundary dispute with any other state by 2030?

Reuters

Chinas Most Advanced Bombers Seen Disputed South China Sea Island

Lloyd Austin

Mark Milley

Mike Minihan

Jacob Thornburg

Michael Brenner

Finian Cunningham

Scott Ritter

Ray Dalio

Global Times

Kevin Rudd

Zhao Tong

Stanislaw Koziej

Robert S. Ross

Charles C. Krulak

Michael C. Horowitz

Joseph S. Nye

Qin Gang

Frank Kendall III

Thomas L. Friedman

Marco J. Lyons

"I argue that war is unlikely to occur due to the deep economic ties underlying the great power politics between the two countries."

"War with either [Russia or China] is neither inevitable nor imminent."

"As things currently stand, the US is not prepared to fight and win a war with China over Taiwan."

"A war between the US and China today is no more inevitable than was war between the rising US and the declining United Kingdom a century ago."

"[T]he tension between the United States and China will grow, and competition will intensify; it is inevitable. War, however, is not."

"War is a risk, but it is not inevitable."

"The risk of a military conflict is very serious."

"The smallest misstep by either side [Taipei and Beijing] could ignite a U.S.-China war."

"China is preparing for a war and specifically for a war with the United States."

"The most proximate potential timeframe for war is in the next two years."

"My gut tells me we [the US] will fight [with China] in 2025."

Will There Be a US-China War?

Joe Biden

Tsai Ing-wen

John Mearsheimer

William Burns

Marco Rubio

Michael McCaul

Lai Ching-te

Philip S. Davidson

Ministry of National Defense of Taiwan

Bonnie S. Glaser

Charles Glaser

Denny Roy

Mike Studeman

Oriana Skylar Mastro

Henry Olsen

Lyle Goldstein

Bates Gill

Minghao Zhao

Yun Sun

"I don't think that Xi Jinping is going to attack Taiwan any time soon."

"Beijing's main goal is to deter Taiwan independence, rather than realize military reunification."

"There's no indications or warnings of anything imminent [China attacking Taiwan] at this time."

A Chinese takeover of Taiwan "is not inevitable nor, perhaps, even likely in the next few years."

"My thought is that perhaps this is not a time for [China] to consider a major invasion of Taiwan."

"[T]here might indeed be some greater willingness by Beijing to coerce (or even invade) Taiwan during a Trump administration."

China is "more likely to resort to the use of force" if it "perceives a higher likelihood of U.S. support of Taiwan independence."

"An invasion of Taiwan could happen within this decade."

"I think the threat [of China seizing Taiwan] is manifest during this decade, in fact in the next six years."

"Xi's team, reason, and opportunity are all aligned for [a] 2025 [invasion of Taiwan]."

Will China Invade Taiwan?

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According to the latest satellite images of Mischief Reef by the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative, China has constructed a 3,200-hectare network of military bases across the South China Sea, including 20 outposts in the Paracel Islands and seven in the Spratly Islands, with four now serving as fully operational naval and air bases.

According to the latest satellite images of Mischief Reef by the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative, China has constructed a 3,200-hectare network of military bases across the South China Sea, including 20 outposts in the Paracel Islands and seven in the Spratly Islands, with four now serving as fully operational naval and air bases.

Imagery captured in May and first reported by Reuters revealed the deployment of two Chinese H-6K nuclear-capable bombers on Woody Island in the Paracel Archipelago, marking the first such deployment since 2020.

Imagery captured in May and first reported by Reuters revealed the deployment of two Chinese H-6K nuclear-capable bombers on Woody Island in the Paracel Archipelago, marking the first such deployment since 2020.

The military installations include harbors, 3,000-meter runways, more than 72 fighter jet hangars across three major island bases, surface-to-air missile and anti-ship cruise missile emplacements, as well as extensive radar and communications infrastructure.

The military installations include harbors, 3,000-meter runways, more than 72 fighter jet hangars across three major island bases, surface-to-air missile and anti-ship cruise missile emplacements, as well as extensive radar and communications infrastructure.

China reportedly constructed two new oil and gas platforms in the East China Sea during May and June, bringing the total number of Chinese fixed platforms near the median line between China and Japan to 20, prompting formal protests from Tokyo.

Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative

China reportedly constructed two new oil and gas platforms in the East China Sea during May and June, bringing the total number of Chinese fixed platforms near the median line between China and Japan to 20, prompting formal protests from Tokyo.

Between December 2013 and October 2015, China constructed artificial islands covering a total area of nearly 3,000 acres on seven coral reefs in the Spratly Islands through extensive dredging and land reclamation operations.

USCC

Between December 2013 and October 2015, China constructed artificial islands covering a total area of nearly 3,000 acres on seven coral reefs in the Spratly Islands through extensive dredging and land reclamation operations.

A 2016 ruling by an international arbitral tribunal found Beijing's sweeping claims over the South China Sea had no basis under international law, a decision that China rejects while maintaining sovereignty claims over nearly all the disputed waters.

Global Conflict Tracker

Xinhuanet

A 2016 ruling by an international arbitral tribunal found Beijing's sweeping claims over the South China Sea had no basis under international law, a decision that China rejects while maintaining sovereignty claims over nearly all the disputed waters.

Newsweek #1

Guardian #0

Independent #0

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Reuters #0

Satellite imagery from May revealed the deployment of two Chinese H-6K nuclear-capable bombers on Woody Island in the Paracel Archipelago, marking the first such deployment since 2020 and demonstrating China's enhanced military capabilities.</span

Independent #

ABC #

Satellite imagery from May revealed the deployment of two Chinese H-6K nuclear-capable bombers on Woody Island in the Paracel Archipelago, marking the first such deployment since 2020 and demonstrating China's enhanced military capabilities.

The military installations include harbors, 3,000-meter runways, more than 72 fighter jet hangars across three major island bases, surface-to-air missile and anti-ship cruise missile emplacements, plus extensive radar and communications infrastructure.</span

The military installations include harbors, 3,000-meter runways, more than 72 fighter jet hangars across three major island bases, surface-to-air missile and anti-ship cruise missile emplacements, plus extensive radar and communications infrastructure.

China constructed two new oil and gas platforms in the East China Sea during May and June, bringing the total number of Chinese fixed platforms near the median line between China and Japan to twenty, prompting formal protests from Tokyo.</span

China constructed two new oil and gas platforms in the East China Sea during May and June, bringing the total number of Chinese fixed platforms near the median line between China and Japan to twenty, prompting formal protests from Tokyo.

From December 2013 to October 2015, China built artificial islands with a total area of close to 3,000 acres on seven coral reefs in the Spratly Islands through massive dredging and land reclamation operations.</span

USCC #

From December 2013 to October 2015, China built artificial islands with a total area of close to 3,000 acres on seven coral reefs in the Spratly Islands through massive dredging and land reclamation operations.

A 2016 ruling by an international arbitral tribunal found Beijing's sweeping claims over the South China Sea had no basis under international law, a decision that China rejects while maintaining sovereignty claims over nearly all the disputed waters.</span

Global Conflict Tracker #

The rapid militarization of disputed territories violates international law and threatens regional security through coercive tactics. These artificial islands enable China to project power far from its mainland, creating a destabilizing military presence that undermines freedom of navigation and intimidates neighboring countries with legitimate territorial claims.

The rapid militarization of disputed territories violates international law and threatens regional security through coercive tactics. These artificial islands enable China to project power far from its mainland, creating a destabilizing military presence that undermines freedom of navigation and intimidates neighboring countries with legitimate territorial claims.

Reuters #

The US-China Conflict

China Expands South China Sea Military Network with Bomber Bases

China

Military

China's military expansion represents legitimate defensive measures aimed at protecting its sovereign territory and maintaining regional stability. The bases provide necessary infrastructure to safeguard lawful maritime rights and counter external provocations that threaten peace. These developments reflect China's growing capacity to defend its interests against foreign interference.

China's military expansion represents legitimate defensive measures aimed at protecting its sovereign territory and maintaining regional stability. The bases provide necessary infrastructure to safeguard lawful maritime rights and counter external provocations that threaten peace. These developments reflect China's growing capacity to defend its interests against foreign interference.

The State Council of the People's Republic of China

Ministry of National Defense

What US recent gambits in South China Sea show about its regional, intl standing

US Department of State

Technical Difficulties

The Hongkongpost

Chinas Maritime Aggression: A Pattern Of International Law Violation -

There's a 45% chance that China will settle its South China Sea maritime boundary dispute with any other state by 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

There's a 45% chance that China will settle its South China Sea maritime boundary dispute with any other state by 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Report: China Expanding South China Sea Military Network

Report: China ExpandsExpanding South China Sea Military Network with Bomber Bases

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Report: China Expanding South China Sea Military Network

Report: China ExpandsExpanding South China Sea Military Network with Bomber Bases

The Spin

Metaculus Prediction

The Controversies

Thornburg

Milley

Ritter

Krulak

Rudd

Nye

Tong

Friedman

III

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Minihan

Mearsheimer

Zhao

Milley

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Minihan

Go Deeper

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