Billion-dollar disasters: The economic toll of wildfires, severe storms and earthquakes is soaring
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ThereAlthough isclimate achange 50%may chanceappear thatto thebe totalcausing greater damage, incurredthis byis climateprimarily changedue to rising property values, increased urbanization and higher population density in thedisaster-prone 21stareas, centuryrather willthan bean 16.5%intensification of thenatural worldevents gross— domesticfactors productthat reports like this often overlook. Historical records indicate that natural variability has existed long before industrial emissions, accordingraising todoubts about whether the Metaculusrecent predictionsurges communityin costs are truly linked to climate trends.
There is a 50% chance that the total damage incurred by climate change in the 21st century will be at least 16.5% of the world gross domestic product, according to the Metaculus prediction community.