Bloomberg

EU, US Reach Deal to Avoid Trump Tariff Hike Before Deadline

CNBC

Trump announces EU trade deal with 15% tariffs

Metaculus

What will the effective US tariff rate on goods being imported into the United States be at the end of 2026?

Reuters

US and EU clinch deal with broad 15% tariffs on EU goods to avert trade war

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

The Economist

Nick Marro

Michael Snipes

Karl Schamotta

Robert Handfield

Peterson Institute for International Economics

Arun Sundaram

Alan Siger

National Retail Federation

Gabe Horwitz

Monica Morlacco

Mary Lovely

Felix Tintelnot

Scott Harris

Stephen Tapp

Ed Brzytwa

Michael Clemens

Rachel Friedberg

Steve Hanke

John A. Konrad V

Laurence Ales

Joe Rodriguez

Jean-Baptiste Wautier

"The prices of electronics would definitely go up."

The tariffs will "increase prices for everything that's imported, and that includes food."

Trump tariffs would "raise prices even more for consumers."

"I am extremely confident that food will get more expensive."

Trump's tariffs would "increase the cost of US manufacturing."

"Trump is about to make every American pay even more for coffee."

"Tariffs would disrupt supply chains and increase production costs."

Will the Proposed Trump Tariffs Increase the Price of Groceries/Goods/Services?

Donald Trump

Torsten Sløk

Kevin Ryan

The Independent

Scott Bessent

Spencer Hakimian

Lance Jungmeyer

Dino Bianco

Christian Science Monitor

Ryan Petersen

Rob Handfield

John Harmon

Jason Miller

Marc Morial

Phil Lempert

Craig Fuller

Karyn Rispoli

American Trucking Associations


Sean Stein

"I wouldn't think that we would have supply chain shocks."

"There's unlikely to be a food shortage."

"We don't have shortages right now, nor should we expect any in these areas [agricultural products]."

"That [the decreasing flow of container ships from China to the US] will lead to empty shelves in stores."

"Shortages [of essential goods] will materialize quickly and could lead to civil unrest."

"Empty shelves coming to you soon."

"The consequence [of Trump's trade policies] will be empty shelves in US stores in a few weeks and Covid-like shortages."

Torsten Slok

"Like back during Covid where we had shortages of toilet paper, we are going to start seeing that in more and more goods."

"Well, maybe the children will have two dolls instead of 30 dolls."

Will Grocery Stores in the US Experience Empty Shelves/Item Shortage Under Trump 2.0?

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U.S. President Donald Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced on Sunday that they have reached a trade agreement in a meeting in Turnberry, Scotland, that day.

Donald Trump on Truth Social

Ursula von der Leyen

U.S. President Donald Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced on Sunday that they have reached a trade agreement in a meeting in Turnberry, Scotland, that day.

This comes as the August 1 deadline for Trump's Liberation Day tariffs was less than a week away, with the U.S. president emphasizing he had no intention to delay it a third time. The U.S. was set to levy a 30% tariff on EU goods in the absence of a deal.

EuroNews

New York Post

This comes as the August 1 deadline for Trump's Liberation Day tariffs was less than a week away, with the U.S. president emphasizing he had no intention to delay it a third time. The U.S. was set to levy a 30% tariff on EU goods in the absence of a deal.

EU countries agreed to open up their markets to many U.S. exports at a zero tariff rate, while most of their goods, including cars, will face an across-the-board tariff of 15% in the U.S. It remains to be clarified whether the deal applies to pharmaceuticals and semiconductors, and whether steel and aluminium would face a preferential treatment.

Euractiv

EU countries agreed to open up their markets to many U.S. exports at a zero tariff rate, while most of their goods, including cars, will face an across-the-board tariff of 15% in the U.S. It remains to be clarified whether the deal applies to pharmaceuticals and semiconductors, and whether steel and aluminium would face a preferential treatment.

While the 15% rate is higher than the 10% tariff that Trump agreed to apply to British goods — and which Brussels had been seeking — it matches the main tariff rate of the U.S.-Japan trade deal and is lower than rates granted to other countries, such as Indonesia and the Philippines.

New York Times

While the 15% rate is higher than the 10% tariff that Trump agreed to apply to British goods — and which Brussels had been seeking —  it matches the main tariff rate of the U.S.-Japan trade deal and is lower than rates granted to other countries, such as Indonesia and the Philippines.

Furthermore, the EU committed to purchasing $750 billion worth of U.S. energy products and investing $600 billion in the U.S. above current levels, along with buying what Trump described as a "vast amount" of military equipment from the U.S.

Business Insider

Wall Street Journal

Furthermore, the EU committed to purchasing $750 billion worth of U.S. energy products and investing $600 billion in the U.S. above current levels, along with buying what Trump described as a "vast amount" of military equipment from the U.S.

If taken together, the European bloc is the biggest trading partner for the U.S. Total trade last year hit $1.97 trillion, with the U.S. net-importing $235 billion worth in goods. Before Trump returned to the White House, EU exporters faced an average 4.8% tariff rate in the U.S.

If taken together, the European bloc is the biggest trading partner for the U.S. Total trade last year hit $1.97 trillion, with the U.S. net-importing $235 billion worth in goods. Before Trump returned to the White House, EU exporters faced an average 4.8% tariff rate in the U.S.

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CNBC #0

Metaculus #0

Reuters #0

Donald Trump on Truth Social #

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Reuters #

President Trump struck a major victory for the American people as he was able to secure the biggest of all deals with the EU. Now, the previously closed European markets will open up to U.S. goods and the EU agreed to purchase over a trillion dollar worth of U.S. energy and other investments. This is what fair trade looks like.

President Trump struck a major victory for the American people as he was able to secure the biggest of all deals with the EU. Now, the previously closed European markets will open up to U.S. goods and the EU agreed to purchase over a trillion dollar worth of U.S. energy and other investments. This is what fair trade looks like.

One America

One America #

Trump announces historic trade deal with EU, including $750B investment in U.S. energy: Its the biggest of all deals

While this agreement is being pushed as a historic landmark between the U.S. and Europe's 27-nation bloc, it's hard to judge the actual impact of this rushed trade deal as key aspects such as investment commitments remain vague. For now, both sides are championing the agreement as a win. Yet, that is incompatible with Trump's zero-sum thinking.

While this agreement is being pushed as a historic landmark between the U.S. and Europe's 27-nation bloc, it's hard to judge the actual impact of this rushed trade deal as key aspects such as investment commitments remain vague. For now, both sides are championing the agreement as a win. Yet, that is incompatible with Trump's zero-sum thinking.

BBC News

BBC News #

The devil will be in the detail

There's a 50% chance that the effective U.S. tariff rate on goods being imported into the United States will be 9.23% at the end of 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

There's a 50% chance that the effective U.S. tariff rate on goods being imported into the United States will be 9.23% at the end of 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

US Reaches Trade Deal With EU

US andReaches EU Reach Trade Deal With Broad 15% TariffsEU

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US Reaches Trade Deal With EU

US andReaches EU Reach Trade Deal With Broad 15% TariffsEU

The Spin

Metaculus Prediction

The Controversies

Handfield

Snipes

Tapp

Friedberg

Hanke

Ocasio-Cortez

Wautier

Bessent

Fuller

Handfield

Ryan

Associations

Hakimian

Stein

Trump

Articles on this story

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