Hamas has consistently obstructed peace efforts by making unreasonable demands and refusing to negotiate in good faith. The group's latest response demonstrated an apparent unwillingness to reach a ceasefire, forcing mediators to abandon talks. Hamas broke previous ceasefires and continues prioritizing its militant agenda over Palestinian welfare.
Israel's blockade and military operations are causing widespread starvation in Gaza, preventing vital supplies from reaching suffering families and obstructing real peace talks. The humanitarian crisis highlights Israel's disregard for Palestinian lives. The ongoing restrictions exacerbate the devastation and hinder meaningful efforts for peace.
Israel has decided to pull back from the Qatar talks, but this doesn't mean that discussions have collapsed. Israel is making it clear to Hamas that there must be a meaningful shift in stance from a posture of "rejectionism" to being more constructive and accounting for Israeli security concerns.
There's a 10% chance that the Gaza war will end and significant progress will be made towards a two-state solution to the Israel-Palestine conflict before January 1, 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.