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Moving too quickly risks legitimizing an authoritarian leader who still concentrates enormous power and could suspend basic rights at will. Despite moderate rhetoric, HTS remains fundamentally Islamist, and recent sectarian tensions raise doubts about whether this transformation will stick long-term. The movement achieved victory through calculated gambles rather than genuine democratic principles.
There's a 10% chance that Syria will be partitioned into new, internationally recognized sovereign states before 2040, according to the Metaculus prediction community.