Islamist group running Syria has mixed record over governance in province, ruled with 'iron fist'
FOX NewsDEC 2024
US Revokes Terrorist Designation for Syrian Rebel Group HTS
Above: Armed security forces are present as interim Syrian President Ahmad Al-Sharaa appears in the Citadel of Aleppo in Syria, on May 27, 2025. Image copyright: MOHAMAD DABOUL/Middle East Images/AFP/Getty Images
The Spin
Pro-establishment narrative
This is a pragmatic recognition by the U.S. of the reality on the ground. HTS has demonstrated genuine transformation from its al-Qaeda roots, severing ties years ago and proving its commitment to building an inclusive, democratic Syria. The group has cooperated with U.S. intelligence to foil Islamic State group plots and shows hostility toward Iran, making it a valuable regional partner.
Establishment-critical narrative
Moving too quickly risks legitimizing an authoritarian leader who still concentrates enormous power and could suspend basic rights at will. Despite moderate rhetoric, HTS remains fundamentally Islamist, and recent sectarian tensions raise doubts about whether this transformation will stick long-term. The movement achieved victory through calculated gambles rather than genuine democratic principles. This is a risky move from the U.S.
Metaculus Prediction
There's a 10% chance that Syria will be partitioned into new, internationally recognized sovereign states before 2040, according to the Metaculus prediction community.