Elon Musk’s proposed new political party could focus on a few pivotal congressional seats
GuardianJUL 8
Elon Musk Launches the America Party
Above: Elon Musk in the Oval Office of the White House on May 30, 2025, in Washington, DC. Image copyright: Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images
The Spin
Republican narrative
Musk's third-party venture is nothing more than a vanity project that will split conservative votes and help Democrats win elections. The America Party already exists — it's called MAGA, and Musk is only doing this to hurt Trump out of personal spite. Third parties have historically struggled in America's two-party system, and this effort will likely follow a similar pattern, characterized by initial excitement followed by irrelevance.
Democratic narrative
Musk's America Party is a potential spoiler in future elections as it could siphon moderate and independent voters. His political views, often libertarian-leaning and unpredictable, clash with Democratic priorities like social justice, environmental regulation, and income equality. While there's a need for political innovation, the move is destabilizing rather than constructive for progressive goals.
Narrative C
This America Party is a genuine alternative to the corrupt establishment that's bankrupting the country with wasteful spending. Both Republicans and Democrats have become part of the same uni-party system that ignores fiscal responsibility and the will of the people. The overwhelming support in the poll indicates that Americans are eager for genuine change and accountability in government.
Metaculus Prediction
There's a 4.5% chance that Elon Musk will hold major political office in the U.S. before February 2033, according to the Metaculus prediction community.