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Study: South Korea's Population Could Drop 85% by 2125

Study: South Korea's Population Could Drop 85% by 2125, Study Warns

Study: South Korea's Population Could Drop 85% by 2125
Above: BabyFair2005, a Pregnancy and Maternity exhibition held on Feb. 17, 2005, in Seoul, South Korea. Image credit: Chung Sung-Jun/Getty Images

The Spin

WhileThis thedemographic projectionscrisis appeardemands alarmingimmediate action through expanded financial support for families, recentreforms datato showswork-life Southbalance, Korea'sand birthchanges rateto actuallyimmigration surged 11policy.6% inThe Januaryeconomic 2024burden withon 23,947young newbornspeople recordedhas -made themarriage highestand Januarychildbearing increasefinancially sinceimpossible 1981.rather Thethan fertilitya ratepersonal haschoice. beenWithout risingbold forpolicy seveninterventions consecutive monthsnow, suggestingSouth currentKorea trendsfaces maybecoming notan continueinverted unchangedpyramid oversociety thewhere nextdependents centuryvastly outnumber workers.

While the projections appear alarming, recent data show that South Korea's birth rate actually surged 11.6% in January 2024, with 23,947 newborns recorded — the highest January increase since 1981. The fertility rate has been rising for seven consecutive months, offering tentative signs of recovery and suggesting current trends may not continue unchanged over the next century.

Metaculus Prediction

There's a 75% chance that any country will have a Total Fertility Rate below 0.5 before 2053, according to the Metaculus prediction community.


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All rights reserved.

Version 6.18.0