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Study: South Korea's Population Could Drop 85% by 2125

Above: BabyFair2005, a Pregnancy and Maternity exhibition held on Feb. 17, 2005, in Seoul, South Korea. Image copyright: Chung Sung-Jun/Getty Images

The Spin

Narrative A

This demographic crisis demands immediate action through expanded financial support for families, reforms to work-life balance, and changes to immigration policy. The economic burden on young people has made marriage and childbearing financially impossible rather than a personal choice. Without bold policy interventions now, South Korea faces becoming an inverted pyramid society where dependents vastly outnumber workers.

Narrative B

While the projections appear alarming, recent data show that South Korea's birth rate actually surged 11.6% in January 2024, with 23,947 newborns recorded — the highest January increase since 1981. The fertility rate has been rising for seven consecutive months, offering tentative signs of recovery and suggesting current trends may not continue unchanged over the next century.

Metaculus Prediction

There's a 75% chance that any country will have a Total Fertility Rate below 0.5 before 2053, according to the Metaculus prediction community.


The Controversies



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