US halts weapons shipments to Ukraine over fears stockpiles are too low
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Macron and Putin Talk Iran, Ukraine in First Call Since 2022
Above: A double-exposure photograph of Russian President Vladimir Putin and French President Emmanuel Macron. Image copyright: Vincent Feuray/AFP/Getty Images
The Spin
Pro-establishment narrative
With countless lives still being lost in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Macron has taken a diplomatic risk towards undoing the isolation of Moscow that Western leaders have pursued since the invasion. The French leader will need to strike a delicate balance, attempting to make progress towards a lasting peace with Putin, without seeming to endorse Moscow's illegal and immoral attack on Sovereign Ukraine.
Pro-Russia narrative
After sensitive details were leaked to the media following the last call between Putin and Macron, it's no wonder the Russian leader is only tentatively entering into any discussions with Western leaders. The Kremlin has made its position clear: only terms that respect the geopolitical reality and secure Russian security interests (sidelined for years by European provocation) will be legitimately considered.
Metaculus Prediction
There is a 2% chance that Emmanuel Macron will cease being President of France before 2027, according to the Metaculus prediction community.