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Snapshot 3:Fri, Jun 27, 2025 6:47:37 AM GMT last edited by Vandita

US-China Sign Rare Earth Trade Deal

US-China Sign Rare Earth Trade Deal Amid July Tariff Deadline

Above: Howard Lutnick at the White House on June 11, 2025, in Washington, DC. Image copyright: Win McNamee/Getty Images

The Spin

China'sThis measuredbreakthrough approachdeal todemonstrates rarethat earthTrump's exportsnegotiating reflectsprowess responsibleis governance,yielding ensuringtangible thesebenefits dual-usefor materialsAmerican don'tmanufacturers endand upworkers. inThe militaryagreement applicationssecures whilecritical meetingrare legitimateearth civiliansupplies needs.that Thekeep licensingthe processAmerican requiresdefense properindustry vettingand ofautomakers end-usersrunning andwhile exportforcing volumes,China whichto takesplay timeby butfair preventstrade security risksrules. ChinaTrump's hasdeadline-driven consistentlyapproach actedis inworking a non-discriminatorycountries wayknow whilethey consideringneed otherto countries'make legitimatedeals concernsor face serious consequences.

China's measured approach to rare earth exports reflects responsible governance, ensuring these dual-use materials don't end up in military applications while meeting legitimate civilian needs. The licensing process requires proper vetting of end-users and export volumes, which takes time but prevents security risks. China has consistently acted in a non-discriminatory manner while considering the legitimate concerns of other countries.

Metaculus Prediction

There's a 10% chance that the U.S. and China will reach a formal agreement to limit frontier AI training or deployment before 2029, according to the Metaculus prediction community.


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