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US-China Sign Rare Earth Trade Deal

Above: Howard Lutnick at the White House on June 11, 2025, in Washington, DC. Image copyright: Win McNamee/Getty Images

The Spin

Pro-establishment narrative

This breakthrough deal demonstrates that Trump's negotiating prowess is yielding tangible benefits for American manufacturers and workers. The agreement secures critical rare earth supplies that keep the American defense industry and automakers running while forcing China to play by fair trade rules. Trump's deadline-driven approach is working — countries know they need to make deals or face serious consequences.

Pro-China narrative

China's measured approach to rare earth exports reflects responsible governance, ensuring these dual-use materials don't end up in military applications. The licensing process requires proper vetting of end-users and export volumes, which takes time but prevents security risks. China has consistently acted in a non-discriminatory manner while considering the legitimate civilian needs and concerns of other countries.

Metaculus Prediction

There's a 10% chance that the U.S. and China will reach a formal agreement to limit frontier AI training or deployment before 2029, according to the Metaculus prediction community.


The Controversies



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