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Snapshot 6:Wed, Jun 25, 2025 2:56:44 PM GMT last edited by Joshua

French PM Bayrou Faces No-Confidence Vote After Pension Talks Fail

French PM Bayrou Faces No-Confidence Vote After Pension Talks Fail

Above: French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou at the National Assembly in Paris on June 25, 2025. Image copyright: THOMAS SAMSON/AFP/Getty Images

The Spin

Bayrou broke his solemn promises to Parliament and the French people about allowing full debate on pension reform, including the retirement age. The Prime Minister explicitly committed that lawmakers could discuss "everything without any totem or taboo" but then refused to let Parliament vote on returning to age 62. This betrayal of democratic principles and the word given makes censure the only responsible choice.

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Censuring Bayrou now would be counterproductive since it would leave the unpopular 2023 pension reform intact while creating more political instability. The focus should be on extracting meaningful policy concessions during budget negotiations rather than pointless censure that achieves nothing for workers. Strategic patience will yield better results than hasty political theater.

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Metaculus Prediction

There is a 7% chance a vote of no confidence will pass the French National Assembly before July 14, 2025, according to the Metaculus prediction community.


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