Metaculus

Will a vote of no confidence pass the French National Assembly before July 14, 2025?

The Socialist Party had previously abstained from efforts to topple Bayrou's government during four months of pension negotiations, but party leader Boris Vallaud announced the censure motion after Bayrou refused to allow parliamentary debate on lowering the retirement age back to 62.</span

France 24

Parti-Socialiste

The Socialist Party had previously abstained from efforts to topple Bayrou's government during four months of pension negotiations, but party leader Boris Vallaud announced the censure motion after Bayrou refused to allow parliamentary debate on lowering the retirement age back to 62.

The pension reform talks, dubbed a "conclave" by Bayrou, aimed to address targeted measures including better pensions for women based on children and early retirement for workers in arduous jobs, but employer organizations rejected these proposals despite union participation.</span

Assemblée nationale

Euractiv

The pension reform talks, dubbed a "conclave" by Bayrou, aimed to address targeted measures including better pensions for women based on children and early retirement for workers in arduous jobs, but employer organizations rejected these proposals despite union participation.

France's Court of Auditors projects the pension system deficit will reach €6.6 billion in 2025 and €30 billion by 2045, even after the 2023 reform, highlighting the financial challenges underlying the negotiations.</span

France's Court of Auditors projects the pension system deficit will reach €6.6 billion in 2025 and €30 billion by 2045, even after the 2023 reform, highlighting the financial challenges underlying the negotiations.

The far-right National Rally indicated it would not support the current no-confidence motion, with party officials stating censure would come during fall budget negotiations rather than over pension issues, making the motion unlikely to pass.</span

Politico

Le Figaro

The far-right National Rally indicated it would not support the current no-confidence motion, with party officials stating censure would come during fall budget negotiations rather than over pension issues, making the motion unlikely to pass.

Bayrou's government is preparing a €40 billion savings plan to keep the deficit at 4.6% of GDP, with the budget presentation scheduled for mid-July, while the prime minister remains defiant about finding a compromise on pension reforms.</span

Bayrou's government is preparing a €40 billion savings plan to keep the deficit at 4.6% of GDP, with the budget presentation scheduled for mid-July, while the prime minister remains defiant about finding a compromise on pension reforms.

Metaculus #0

French Prime Minister François Bayrou faces a no-confidence motion after pension reform negotiations collapsed Monday, with the Socialist Party announcing it would file the motion following the failure of talks aimed at revising the unpopular 2023 law that raised retirement age to 64. The Socialists had previously abstained from efforts to topple Bayrou's government while waiting for the outcome of the pension "conclave" but moved to censure after negotiations ended without agreement.</span

Euractiv #

Politico #

French Prime Minister François Bayrou faces a no-confidence motion after pension reform negotiations collapsed Monday, with the Socialist Party announcing it would file the motion following the failure of talks aimed at revising the unpopular 2023 law that raised retirement age to 64. The Socialists had previously abstained from efforts to topple Bayrou's government while waiting for the outcome of the pension "conclave" but moved to censure after negotiations ended without agreement.

The pension reform talks, dubbed a "conclave" by Bayrou, broke down after four months of discussions between trade unions and employer organizations, with unions seeking measures like early retirement for workers in physically demanding jobs and employers rejecting concessions that could impact the system's finances. According to France's Court of Auditors, the pension deficit is expected to reach €6.6 billion in 2025 and €30 billion by 2045 despite the 2023 reform.</span

France 24 #

The pension reform talks, dubbed a "conclave" by Bayrou, broke down after four months of discussions between trade unions and employer organizations, with unions seeking measures like early retirement for workers in physically demanding jobs and employers rejecting concessions that could impact the system's finances. According to France's Court of Auditors, the pension deficit is expected to reach €6.6 billion in 2025 and €30 billion by 2045 despite the 2023 reform.

Socialist Party leader Boris Vallaud accused Bayrou of betraying his commitments, citing the Prime Minister's January promise that Parliament could debate "everything without any totem or taboo - not even the retirement age" but later refusing to allow parliamentary debate on returning the retirement age to 62. Vallaud stated that "respect for the word given being a foundation of our democracy," the broken promises constituted "a major betrayal" requiring censure.</span

Socialist Party leader Boris Vallaud accused Bayrou of betraying his commitments, citing the Prime Minister's January promise that Parliament could debate "everything without any totem or taboo - not even the retirement age" but later refusing to allow parliamentary debate on returning the retirement age to 62. Vallaud stated that "respect for the word given being a foundation of our democracy," the broken promises constituted "a major betrayal" requiring censure.

The far-left France Unbowed party signaled support for the no-confidence motion, with party members calling for Bayrou's removal and the repeal of pension reform during heated parliamentary exchanges. However, the motion's success depends on support from Marine Le Pen's far-right National Rally, which holds the balance of power in the divided National Assembly.</span

The far-left France Unbowed party signaled support for the no-confidence motion, with party members calling for Bayrou's removal and the repeal of pension reform during heated parliamentary exchanges. However, the motion's success depends on support from Marine Le Pen's far-right National Rally, which holds the balance of power in the divided National Assembly.

National Rally officials confirmed Wednesday they would not support the current no-confidence motion, with Vice-President Sébastien Chenu stating "the time for censure will come in the fall, during budget season" and explaining that censuring Bayrou now would leave the 2023 pension reform in place. The party indicated it would instead try to extract concessions on energy and migration policy during upcoming budget negotiations.</span

Le Figaro #

National Rally officials confirmed Wednesday they would not support the current no-confidence motion, with Vice-President Sébastien Chenu stating "the time for censure will come in the fall, during budget season" and explaining that censuring Bayrou now would leave the 2023 pension reform in place. The party indicated it would instead try to extract concessions on energy and migration policy during upcoming budget negotiations.

Bayrou's government faces the challenge of presenting a €40 billion savings plan to reduce France's deficit to 4.6% of GDP, with the Prime Minister acknowledging he governs "under a sword of Damocles" while vowing to "find a way forward" despite the pension talks failure. The situation mirrors that of his predecessor Michel Barnier, whose government fell in December after the National Rally withdrew support over budget measures.</span

Bayrou's government faces the challenge of presenting a €40 billion savings plan to reduce France's deficit to 4.6% of GDP, with the Prime Minister acknowledging he governs "under a sword of Damocles" while vowing to "find a way forward" despite the pension talks failure. The situation mirrors that of his predecessor Michel Barnier, whose government fell in December after the National Rally withdrew support over budget measures.

Bayrou broke his solemn promises to Parliament and the French people about allowing full debate on pension reform, including the retirement age. The Prime Minister explicitly committed that lawmakers could discuss "everything without any totem or taboo" but then refused to let Parliament vote on returning to age 62. This betrayal of democratic principles and the word given makes censure the only responsible choice.

Bayrou broke his solemn promises to Parliament and the French people about allowing full debate on pension reform, including the retirement age. The Prime Minister explicitly committed that lawmakers could discuss "everything without any totem or taboo" but then refused to let Parliament vote on returning to age 62. This betrayal of democratic principles and the word given makes censure the only responsible choice.

17th legislature Ordinary session of 2024-2025 First session on Tuesday, June 24, 2025

FRANÇOIS BAYROU BETRAYS HIS WORD ON PENSIONS: THE SOCIALIST PARTY FILES A MOTION OF CENSURE

Censuring Bayrou now would be counterproductive since it would leave the unpopular 2023 pension reform intact while creating more political instability. The focus should be on extracting meaningful policy concessions during budget negotiations rather than pointless censure that achieves nothing for workers. Strategic patience will yield better results than hasty political theater.

Censuring Bayrou now would be counterproductive since it would leave the unpopular 2023 pension reform intact while creating more political instability. The focus should be on extracting meaningful policy concessions during budget negotiations rather than pointless censure that achieves nothing for workers. Strategic patience will yield better results than hasty political theater.

French PM Bayrou gets temporary lifeline from far right

Retraites : le Rassemblement national ne votera pas la censure du gouvernement, annonce Jean-Philippe Tanguy

French PM Bayrou Faces No-Confidence Vote After Pension Talks Fail

Europe

France

Governance

Politics

The pension system faces a massive deficit that threatens future generations, and responsible governance requires maintaining financial balance rather than populist promises. Bayrou's efforts to find compromise through social dialogue represent genuine democratic engagement, while censure motions ignore fiscal reality.

The pension system faces a massive deficit that threatens future generations, and responsible governance requires maintaining financial balance rather than populist promises. Bayrou's efforts to find compromise through social dialogue represent genuine democratic engagement, while censure motions ignore fiscal reality.

French PM Bayrou Faces No-Confidence Vote After Pension Talks Fail

French PM Bayrou Faces No-Confidence Vote After Pension Talks Fail

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French PM Bayrou Faces No-Confidence Vote After Pension Talks Fail

French PM Bayrou Faces No-Confidence Vote After Pension Talks Fail

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