Metaculus

Date Weakly General AI is Publicly Known

Eileen Guo

Zarema Jaramillo

Chase White

Molly Liebergall

Newsweek

Therese Poletti


William Kovacic

Laila Maidan

Mario Nawfal

"There is very little chance that FB is required to be broken up, as we expect the FTC to lose the case."

"If the FTC is successful, Meta may be forced to divest two of its largest brands."

"If Meta is found guilty of violating antitrust laws, it could be forced to divest its subsidiaries or restructure the business."

"Meta could be forced to sell off IG and WhatsApp if the FTC wins the trial."

The antitrust lawsuit against Facebook "could force it to sell off Instagram and WhatsApp."

"Mark Zuckerberg might have to kiss Instagram and WhatsApp goodbye."

"A ruling in favor of the government could upend the social-media industry's largest player by forcing the divestitures of services core to Meta's (META) identity."

Will Meta Be Broken Up?

Elon Musk

Yoshua Bengio

Demis Hassabis

Melanie Mitchell

Stuart Russell

Sam Altman

Dario Amodei

Geoffrey Hinton

Yann LeCun

Gary Marcus

Max Tegmark

Shane Legg

Society is more likely to get "cat-level" or "dog-level" AI years before human-level AI.

"[W]e will eventually reach AGI... and quite possibly before the end of this century."

"Superhuman AIs" will be achieved "between a few years and a couple of decades."

"Digital intelligence" could overtake us within "5 to 20 years."

We may achieve "something like AGI or AGI-like in the next decade."

"[W]e could get to real AGI in the next decade."

"Human-level" AI could occur in "two or three years."

"I'd be surprised if we don't have AGI by [2029]."

Will AI Surpass Human Intelligence, and When?

Meta's Oversight Board criticized the company's enforcement of manipulated media policies as "inconsistent, incoherent, and unjustifiable" following a case involving an unlabeled AI-manipulated audio clip of Iraqi Kurdish politicians discussing election rigging posted weeks before October 2024 parliamentary elections.</span

Engadget

Cybernews

Meta's Oversight Board criticized the company's enforcement of manipulated media policies as "inconsistent, incoherent, and unjustifiable" following a case involving an unlabeled AI-manipulated audio clip of Iraqi Kurdish politicians discussing election rigging posted weeks before October 2024 parliamentary elections.

The controversial audio clip, posted by a media outlet with 4 million followers, garnered approximately 200,000 views and was reported by users as misinformation, but Meta initially declined to label it despite later labeling other instances of the same content on different pages.</span

Tech Edition

The Oversight Board

The controversial audio clip, posted by a media outlet with 4 million followers, garnered approximately 200,000 views and was reported by users as misinformation, but Meta initially declined to label it despite later labeling other instances of the same content on different pages.

Meta currently can only automatically detect and label AI-generated static images, not video or audio content, leading to inconsistent enforcement where identical manipulated media receives different treatment across the platform, according to the Oversight Board's findings.</span

The National

Meta currently can only automatically detect and label AI-generated static images, not video or audio content, leading to inconsistent enforcement where identical manipulated media receives different treatment across the platform, according to the Oversight Board's findings.

The Oversight Board recommended Meta invest in technology to identify manipulated audio and video at scale, noting the company's expertise and resources should enable better detection capabilities rather than relying on third-party assessments for high-risk content identification.</span

EuroNews

The Oversight Board recommended Meta invest in technology to identify manipulated audio and video at scale, noting the company's expertise and resources should enable better detection capabilities rather than relying on third-party assessments for high-risk content identification.

Meta's manipulated media labels are not available in all local languages supported by its platforms, including Sorani Kurdish, which the board said should be part of the company's electoral integrity efforts to properly inform users in their preferred language.</span

Meta's manipulated media labels are not available in all local languages supported by its platforms, including Sorani Kurdish, which the board said should be part of the company's electoral integrity efforts to properly inform users in their preferred language.

The ruling comes amid broader concerns about Meta's content moderation approach, particularly after the company announced in January it would end its third-party fact-checking program, which some critics say has diminished the Oversight Board's influence over platform policies.</span

The ruling comes amid broader concerns about Meta's content moderation approach, particularly after the company announced in January it would end its third-party fact-checking program, which some critics say has diminished the Oversight Board's influence over platform policies.

Metaculus #0

The National #

Engadget #

EuroNews #

Cybernews #

Meta faces legitimate technical challenges in automatically detecting sophisticated AI-generated audio and video content at scale across billions of posts. The company has made significant investments in AI detection technology and expanded labeling efforts, but perfect consistency remains technically difficult given the evolving nature of deepfake technology and the massive volume of content uploaded daily.

Meta faces legitimate technical challenges in automatically detecting sophisticated AI-generated audio and video content at scale across billions of posts. The company has made significant investments in AI detection technology and expanded labeling efforts, but perfect consistency remains technically difficult given the evolving nature of deepfake technology and the massive volume of content uploaded daily.

Meta’s AI labelling ‘inconsistent’, internal oversight board finds

Meta Automatically Label More Ai Content

Artificial Intelligence

Meta Oversight Board Slams AI Content Labeling Failures

Science & technology

United States of America

Meta's inconsistent AI labeling creates dangerous information gaps that undermine election integrity and user trust. The company has the technical expertise and resources to detect manipulated content automatically but chooses to rely on unreliable third-party assessments instead. This approach fails users who deserve clear, consistent warnings about potentially fake content, especially during critical electoral periods.

Meta's inconsistent AI labeling creates dangerous information gaps that undermine election integrity and user trust. The company has the technical expertise and resources to detect manipulated content automatically but chooses to rely on unreliable third-party assessments instead. This approach fails users who deserve clear, consistent warnings about potentially fake content, especially during critical electoral periods.

Meta slammed by Oversight Board for incoherent handling of AI-manipulated content

The Oversight Board calls Meta's uneven AI moderation 'incoherent and unjustifiable'

Meta Oversight Board Slams AI Content Labeling Failures

Meta Oversight Board Slams AI Content Labeling Failures

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Meta Oversight Board Slams AI Content Labeling Failures

Meta Oversight Board Slams AI Content Labeling Failures

The Spin

The Controversies

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Newsweek

Maidan

Liebergall

Nawfal

Poletti

LeCun

Marcus

Bengio

Hinton

Hassabis

Altman

Amodei

Musk

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