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Colombia’s president had a bold peace plan. It is not working

Metaculus

Will the following countries experience a civil war before 2036?

Reuters

Colombian army says 57 soldiers kidnapped by civilians under pressure from FARC

57 Soldiers Rescued After Being Kidnapped Southwest Colombia 2025 06 23

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Colombian officials said on Sunday that four non-commissioned officers and 53 soldiers were kidnapped in two groups by hundreds of local residents over the weekend in a mountainous area in the country's southwestern department of Cauca.

BBC News

The Rio Times

Colombian officials said on Sunday that four non-commissioned officers and 53 soldiers were kidnapped in two groups by hundreds of local residents over the weekend in a mountainous area in the country's southwestern department of Cauca.

A first group of 31 people was seized during an operation in El Tambo on Saturday, while the others were captured on Sunday as they headed to El Plateado. Both municipalities are located in the area known as Micay Canyon.

Al Jazeera

A first group of 31 people was seized during an operation in El Tambo on Saturday, while the others were captured on Sunday as they headed to El Plateado. Both municipalities are located in the area known as Micay Canyon.

According to authorities, the civilians were acting under orders from the Carlos Patiño Front, an armed group affiliated with the <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.improvethenews.org/story/2023/colombia-suspends-ceasefire-with-emcfarc-rebels">EMC-FARC</a> — a main dissident faction of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia that rejects the 2016 peace agreement with the government.

According to authorities, the civilians were acting under orders from the Carlos Patiño Front, an armed group affiliated with the EMC-FARC — a main dissident faction of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia that rejects the 2016 peace agreement with the government.

Gen. Erik Rodriguez told local news outlet El Tiempo that the incident was triggered by the arrest of a suspected EMC rebel on Saturday, adding that all of the soldiers are being held at the same location and that negotiations are under way.

Gen. Erik Rodriguez told local news outlet El Tiempo that the incident was triggered by the arrest of a suspected EMC rebel on Saturday, adding that all of the soldiers are being held at the same location and that negotiations are under way.

The Micay Canyon region is estimated to have over 90% of its inhabitants dependent on coca bush cultivation for their livelihood, making the military presence a direct threat to the illegal cocaine trade that flourishes in the area. President Gustavo Petro's administration has been attempting to gain military access to the Micay Canyon as part of his "total peace" strategy, but peace talks with the FARC-EMC faction broke down last year following attacks on Indigenous communities.

The Micay Canyon region is estimated to have over 90% of its inhabitants dependent on coca bush cultivation for their livelihood, making the military presence a direct threat to the illegal cocaine trade that flourishes in the area. President Gustavo Petro's administration has been attempting to gain military access to the Micay Canyon as part of his "total peace" strategy, but peace talks with the FARC-EMC faction broke down last year following attacks on Indigenous communities.

Anadolu Agency

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The kidnappings occurred in El Tambo municipality and near El Plateado town in Cauca department, a mountainous area that serves as a key zone for cocaine production and transportation to Pacific ports for international drug trafficking.</span

Reuters #

BBC News #

The kidnappings occurred in El Tambo municipality and near El Plateado town in Cauca department, a mountainous area that serves as a key zone for cocaine production and transportation to Pacific ports for international drug trafficking.

Military commanders stated that the civilians were acting under pressure from the Central General Staff (EMC), the main dissident faction of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) that rejected the 2016 peace agreement with the government.</span

The Rio Times #

Al Jazeera #

Military commanders stated that the civilians were acting under pressure from the Central General Staff (EMC), the main dissident faction of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) that rejected the 2016 peace agreement with the government.

General Erik Rodriguez explained that the incident was triggered by the arrest of a suspected EMC rebel on Saturday, after which soldiers preparing to airlift the suspect were surrounded by more than 100 people, followed by a second unit being seized the next day.</span

General Erik Rodriguez explained that the incident was triggered by the arrest of a suspected EMC rebel on Saturday, after which soldiers preparing to airlift the suspect were surrounded by more than 100 people, followed by a second unit being seized the next day.

The Micay Canyon region is estimated to have over 90% of its inhabitants dependent on coca bush cultivation for their livelihood, making the military presence a direct threat to the illegal cocaine trade that flourishes in the area.</span

Voz #

The Micay Canyon region is estimated to have over 90% of its inhabitants dependent on coca bush cultivation for their livelihood, making the military presence a direct threat to the illegal cocaine trade that flourishes in the area.

President Gustavo Petro's administration has been attempting to gain military access to the Micay Canyon as part of his "total peace" strategy, but peace talks with the FARC-EMC faction broke down last year following attacks on Indigenous communities.</span

Anadolu Agency #

President Gustavo Petro's administration has been attempting to gain military access to the Micay Canyon as part of his "total peace" strategy, but peace talks with the FARC-EMC faction broke down last year following attacks on Indigenous communities.

This incident highlights the failure of militaristic approaches and demonstrates why dialogue-based peace processes remain essential for addressing Colombia's structural violence. The Total Peace Bill offers the most viable path toward permanent peace by tackling root causes of conflict including poverty, inequality, and state abandonment of rural regions.

This incident highlights the failure of militaristic approaches and demonstrates why dialogue-based peace processes remain essential for addressing Colombia's structural violence. The Total Peace Bill offers the most viable path toward permanent peace by tackling root causes of conflict including poverty, inequality, and state abandonment of rural regions.

Justice For Colombia

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Colombia’s ‘Total Peace’ is achieving slow but steady progress - justice for colombia

57 Colombian Soldiers Kidnapped by Civilians in Drug Region

Armed conflict

Colombia

Kidnapping & hostages

Violence & assaults

Drug abuse & traffic

The ambitious Total Peace sought to finally bring the country's decades-long armed conflict to an end, ensuring that guerrillas would not be persecuted once demobilized and disarmed. The recurrence of kidnappings in Cauca do not discredit the dialogue-based plan, as there has been success elsewhere in the country in addressing structural violence.

The ambitious Total Peace sought to finally bring the country's decades-long armed conflict to an end, ensuring that guerrillas would not be persecuted once demobilized and disarmed. The recurrence of kidnappings in Cauca do not discredit the dialogue-based plan, as there has been success elsewhere in the country in addressing structural violence.

A former guerrilla himself, Petro won the presidency with a bold plan to finally bring the decades-old internal conflict in Colombia to an end, but his so-called total peace has failed. Ceasefires actually allowed armed groups to expand as the government opted not to apply military pressure on them, and Colombia is now in the middle of another escalation of violence.

A former guerrilla himself, Petro won the presidency with a bold plan to finally bring the decades-old internal conflict in Colombia to an end, but his so-called total peace has failed. Ceasefires actually allowed armed groups to expand as the government opted not to apply military pressure on them, and Colombia is now in the middle of another escalation of violence.

There's a 9% chance that Colombia will experience a civil war before 2036, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

There's a 9% chance that Colombia will experience a civil war before 2036, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Colombia: Civilians Capture 57 Soldiers in Restive Coca Zone

57Colombia: ColombianCivilians SoldiersCapture Kidnapped57 bySoldiers Civilians in DrugRestive RegionCoca Zone

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