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Tesla's Austin robotaxi debut reveals profound uncertainties: unproven camera-only technology compared to rivals' advanced sensors, unclear regulatory approval pathways, questionable scalability from a handful of geo-fenced vehicles, and mounting pressure to transform years of bold promises into measurable autonomous driving reality.
There is a 4% chance it will be possible to order flying taxis in at least five cities before 2029, according to the Metaculus prediction community.