Metaculus

Reuters

Nato Countries Approve Hague Summit Statement With 5 Defence Spending Goal 2025 06 22

Donald Trump

Nikki Haley

Jens Stoltenberg

Thomas Gift

Ron Filipkowski

J.D. Vance

Randall Stone

Dan Caldwell

Kori Schake

Charles Kupchan

John Bolton

Mark Esper

James G. Stavridis

"I doubt President Trump will withdraw from NATO."

"I do not expect Trump to withdraw from NATO."

"Donald Trump wants NATO to be strong. He wants us to remain in NATO."

America's there "100 percent [if NATO allies pay their fair share]."

"He might try to pull the United States out of NATO."

"In a second Trump term, we'd almost certainly withdraw from NATO."

Trump "talked many times about getting out of NATO behind closed doors and publicly. So that's just a fact."

"Trump is setting up the pretext for cutting off aid to Ukraine and pulling the US out of NATO."

Will the US Pull Out of NATO?

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

Antony Blinken

Sergei Ryabkov

Kurt Volker

Alexander Stubb

Michael McCaul

NATO

Mircea Geoan

Michael R. Carpenter

Mark Rutte

Andriy Yermak

Julianne Smith

Robert Fico

Ukraine joining NATO "will never happen."

NATO hasn't "reached the point where it is prepared to offer membership or an invitation to Ukraine."

“As long as I am head of the Slovak government, I will direct the MPs that are under my control... never to agree to Ukraine's joining NATO.”

"We cannot admit Ukraine into NATO immediately."

Ukraine is "fully prepared and able to be a member of NATO."

We will take "concrete steps to bring Ukraine closer to NATO."

"Ukraine's path and bridge towards NATO membership is now irreversible."

"Ukraine is closer to NATO than ever before, and will continue on this path until [it] become[s] a member of our alliance."

"Ukraine will join NATO. It is not a question of if, but of when."

Will Ukraine Join NATO?

Spain has secured an exemption allowing it to spend only 2.1% of GDP on defense while meeting NATO capability targets ahead of the organization's scheduled summit later this week.

The Telegraph

Euractiv

Youtube

Spain has secured an exemption allowing it to spend only 2.1% of GDP on defense while meeting NATO capability targets ahead of the organization's scheduled summit later this week.

NATO members will reportedly agree to increase defense spending targets to 5% of GDP by 2035, with 3.5% allocated to core military needs and 1.5% to defense-related items like cybersecurity and infrastructure.

Politico

NATO members will reportedly agree to increase defense spending targets to 5% of GDP by 2035, with 3.5% allocated to core military needs and 1.5% to defense-related items like cybersecurity and infrastructure.

However, in a letter to Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte confirmed the agreement will "give Spain the flexibility to determine its own sovereign path for reaching the Capability Target goal." Sánchez rejected the 5% target in a letter to Rutte last week.

The Defense Post

However, in a letter to Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte confirmed the agreement will "give Spain the flexibility to determine its own sovereign path for reaching the Capability Target goal." Sánchez rejected the 5% target in a letter to Rutte last week.

Declaration language concerning the GDP increase at the summit has reportedly been modified from "we commit" to "allies commit" to accommodate for this agreement.

Declaration language concerning the GDP increase at the summit has reportedly been modified from "we commit" to "allies commit" to accommodate for this agreement.

Spain was expected to spend 1.28% of GDP on defense in 2024, making it the lowest spender among NATO's 32 members as a share of economic output, but has announced plans to reach 2% by the end of the year. According to 2024 figures, the U.S. spends approximately two-thirds of NATO Defense expenditure.

Spain was expected to spend 1.28% of GDP on defense in 2024, making it the lowest spender among NATO's 32 members as a share of economic output, but has announced plans to reach 2% by the end of the year. According to 2024 figures, the U.S. spends approximately two-thirds of NATO Defense expenditure.

Sánchez has previously described Spain as a "pacifist" country." Last Friday, U.S. President Donald had stated that NATO would "have to deal with Spain" and the country "has to pay what everybody has to pay." Trump also suggested that he didn't think the U.S. should have to spend 5% GDP.

European Conservative

EuroNews

C-Span

Sánchez has previously described Spain as a "pacifist" country." Last Friday, U.S. President Donald had stated that NATO would "have to deal with Spain" and the country "has to pay what everybody has to pay." Trump also suggested that he didn't think the U.S. should have to spend 5% GDP.

Metaculus #0

Reuters #0

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez secured an exemption allowing Spain to spend only 2.1% of GDP on defense while meeting NATO capability targets, after initially rejecting the 5% requirement in a letter to NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte.</span

The Telegraph #

Euractiv #

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez secured an exemption allowing Spain to spend only 2.1% of GDP on defense while meeting NATO capability targets, after initially rejecting the 5% requirement in a letter to NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte.

The NATO summit declaration language was modified from "we commit" to "allies commit" to provide Spain flexibility in determining its defense spending path, according to diplomatic sources and alliance officials.</span

Politico #

Reuters #

The NATO summit declaration language was modified from "we commit" to "allies commit" to provide Spain flexibility in determining its defense spending path, according to diplomatic sources and alliance officials.

Spain currently spends 1.24% of GDP on defense, making it the lowest spender among NATO's 32 members as a share of economic output, with plans to reach 2% by the end of 2024.</span

Spain currently spends 1.24% of GDP on defense, making it the lowest spender among NATO's 32 members as a share of economic output, with plans to reach 2% by the end of 2024.

Trump criticized Spain as "notorious" for low defense spending and stated the country "has to pay what everybody else has to pay," while suggesting the U.S. should not meet the new target due to past contributions.</span

El País

El País #

Trump criticized Spain as "notorious" for low defense spending and stated the country "has to pay what everybody else has to pay," while suggesting the U.S. should not meet the new target due to past contributions.

Sánchez argued that meeting the 5% target would require drastic cuts to social spending or tax increases, describing the requirement as "disproportionate and unnecessary" while maintaining Spain's commitment to NATO unity.</span

Sánchez argued that meeting the 5% target would require drastic cuts to social spending or tax increases, describing the requirement as "disproportionate and unnecessary" while maintaining Spain's commitment to NATO unity.

Spain's exemption undermines NATO unity and sends a dangerous message to Putin about Western resolve. Every member must contribute equally to collective defense - special deals for laggards weaken the entire alliance when facing existential threats.

Spain's exemption undermines NATO unity and sends a dangerous message to Putin about Western resolve. Every member must contribute equally to collective defense - special deals for laggards weaken the entire alliance when facing existential threats.

The Defense Post #

Spain Claims Exemption After NATO Agrees 5% Spending Deal

Spain exempt from Natos 5pc spending target

Spain Secures NATO Defense Spending Exemption Amid 5% Target

Europe

Military

Politics

Spain

Spain's resistance to NATO's 5% defense hikes shows courage against imperial overreach. While other nations bow to Trump's military industry subsidies, Spain refuses to sacrifice its social programs for bombs. European taxpayers to should not have to fund American weapons while its welfare states crumble. Spain's exemption proves resistance works against NATO's outdated empire fantasies.

Spain's resistance to NATO's 5% defense hikes shows courage against imperial overreach. While other nations bow to Trump's military industry subsidies, Spain refuses to sacrifice its social programs for bombs. European taxpayers to should not have to fund American weapons while its welfare states crumble. Spain's exemption proves resistance works against NATO's outdated empire fantasies.

sahouraxo

Publico

El 5%: imperio, resistencia y sumisin

Spain's rejection of NATO's 5% defense spending betrays European solidarity. After receiving nearly €250B in EU bailouts over the past decade, Sánchez abandons allies when security matters most. While grandstanding over left-wing ideals, his corruption-plagued government robs Spanish taxpayers and betrays international partners who rescued Spain's economy.

Spain's rejection of NATO's 5% defense spending betrays European solidarity. After receiving nearly €250B in EU bailouts over the past decade, Sánchez abandons allies when security matters most. While grandstanding over left-wing ideals, his corruption-plagued government robs Spanish taxpayers and betrays international partners who rescued Spain's economy.

MikaAaltola

La Razón

Entre el bombardeo de Irn y Snchez

There is a 40.6% chance that NATO will agree to a 3% defense spending target at their 2025 summit, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

There is a 40.6% chance that NATO will agree to a 3% defense spending target at their 2025 summit, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

Spain Secures NATO Defense Spending Exemption Amid 5% Target

Spain Secures NATO Defense Spending Exemption Amid 5% Target

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Spain Secures NATO Defense Spending Exemption Amid 5% Target

Spain Secures NATO Defense Spending Exemption Amid 5% Target

The Spin

Metaculus Prediction

The Controversies

Schake

Kupchan

Vance

Trump

Stone

Bolton

Haley

Filipkowski

Ryabkov

Smith

Fico

McCaul

Yermak

Blinken

Stubb

Rutte

Stoltenberg

Articles on this story

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