Metaculus

Reuters

Nato Countries Approve Hague Summit Statement With 5 Defence Spending Goal 2025 06 22

Donald Trump

Nikki Haley

Jens Stoltenberg

Thomas Gift

Ron Filipkowski

J.D. Vance

Randall Stone

Dan Caldwell

Kori Schake

Charles Kupchan

John Bolton

Mark Esper

James G. Stavridis

"I doubt President Trump will withdraw from NATO."

"I do not expect Trump to withdraw from NATO."

"Donald Trump wants NATO to be strong. He wants us to remain in NATO."

America's there "100 percent [if NATO allies pay their fair share]."

"He might try to pull the United States out of NATO."

"In a second Trump term, we'd almost certainly withdraw from NATO."

Trump "talked many times about getting out of NATO behind closed doors and publicly. So that's just a fact."

"Trump is setting up the pretext for cutting off aid to Ukraine and pulling the US out of NATO."

Will the US Pull Out of NATO?

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

Antony Blinken

Sergei Ryabkov

Kurt Volker

Alexander Stubb

Michael McCaul

NATO

Mircea Geoan

Michael R. Carpenter

Mark Rutte

Andriy Yermak

Julianne Smith

Robert Fico

Ukraine joining NATO "will never happen."

NATO hasn't "reached the point where it is prepared to offer membership or an invitation to Ukraine."

“As long as I am head of the Slovak government, I will direct the MPs that are under my control... never to agree to Ukraine's joining NATO.”

"We cannot admit Ukraine into NATO immediately."

Ukraine is "fully prepared and able to be a member of NATO."

We will take "concrete steps to bring Ukraine closer to NATO."

"Ukraine's path and bridge towards NATO membership is now irreversible."

"Ukraine is closer to NATO than ever before, and will continue on this path until [it] become[s] a member of our alliance."

"Ukraine will join NATO. It is not a question of if, but of when."

Will Ukraine Join NATO?

<span>Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez secured an exemption allowing Spain to spend only 2.1% of GDP on defense while meeting NATO capability targets, after initially rejecting the 5% requirement in a letter to NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte.</span

The Telegraph

Euractiv

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez secured an exemption allowing Spain to spend only 2.1% of GDP on defense while meeting NATO capability targets, after initially rejecting the 5% requirement in a letter to NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte.

<span>The NATO summit declaration language was modified from "we commit" to "allies commit" to provide Spain flexibility in determining its defense spending path, according to diplomatic sources and alliance officials.</span

Politico

The NATO summit declaration language was modified from "we commit" to "allies commit" to provide Spain flexibility in determining its defense spending path, according to diplomatic sources and alliance officials.

<span>Spain currently spends 1.24% of GDP on defense, making it the lowest spender among NATO's 32 members as a share of economic output, with plans to reach 2% by the end of 2024.</span

Spain currently spends 1.24% of GDP on defense, making it the lowest spender among NATO's 32 members as a share of economic output, with plans to reach 2% by the end of 2024.

<span>Trump criticized Spain as "notorious" for low defense spending and stated the country "has to pay what everybody else has to pay," while suggesting the U.S. should not meet the new target due to past contributions.</span

El País

Trump criticized Spain as "notorious" for low defense spending and stated the country "has to pay what everybody else has to pay," while suggesting the U.S. should not meet the new target due to past contributions.

<span>Sánchez argued that meeting the 5% target would require drastic cuts to social spending or tax increases, describing the requirement as "disproportionate and unnecessary" while maintaining Spain's commitment to NATO unity.</span

Sánchez argued that meeting the 5% target would require drastic cuts to social spending or tax increases, describing the requirement as "disproportionate and unnecessary" while maintaining Spain's commitment to NATO unity.

Metaculus #0

Reuters #0

<h2></h2>

Spain Wins Exemption From NATO's 5% Spending Goal

Europe

Military

Politics

Spain

Spain's exemption undermines NATO unity and sends a dangerous message to Putin about Western resolve. Every member must contribute equally to collective defense - special deals for laggards weaken the entire alliance when facing existential threats.

<span>Spain's exemption undermines NATO unity and sends a dangerous message to Putin about Western resolve. Every member must contribute equally to collective defense - special deals for laggards weaken the entire alliance when facing existential threats.</span>

The Defense Post

Spain Claims Exemption After NATO Agrees 5% Spending Deal

Spain exempt from Natos 5pc spending target

Spain Secures NATO Defense Spending Exemption Amid 5% Target

Spain Secures NATO Defense Spending Exemption Amid 5% Target

Spain WinsSecures NATO Defense Spending Exemption FromAmid NATO's 5% Spending GoalTarget

The Spin

The Controversies

Schake

Kupchan

Vance

Trump

Stone

Bolton

Haley

Filipkowski

Ryabkov

Smith

Fico

McCaul

Yermak

Blinken

Stubb

Rutte

Stoltenberg

Articles on this story

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Spain Secures NATO Defense Spending Exemption Amid 5% Target

Spain WinsSecures NATO Defense Spending Exemption FromAmid NATO's 5% Spending GoalTarget

The Spin

The Controversies

Schake

Kupchan

Vance

Trump

Stone

Bolton

Haley

Filipkowski

Ryabkov

Smith

Fico

McCaul

Yermak

Blinken

Stubb

Rutte

Stoltenberg

Articles on this story

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