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Snapshot 12:Thu, Jun 19, 2025 11:50:35 AM GMT last edited by Vandita

Study: 1.5°C Warming Limit Could Be Breached by 2028

Study: 1.5°C Warming Limit Could Be Breached by 2028

Above: An activist holding a 1.5°C sign at the COP29 Climate Conference in Baku, Azerbaijan, on Nov. 22, 2024. Image copyright: Sean Gallup/Getty Images

The Spin

The climate crisis demands immediate action as we're rapidly running out of time to prevent catastrophic warming. Current emission levels will exhaust our remaining carbon budget within three years, making the 1.5C target nearly impossible without drastic transformation. Every delay brings us closer to irreversible tipping points and devastating impacts on vulnerable populations worldwide.

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While climate concerns exist, the focus should remain on technological innovation and economic growth rather than drastic emission cuts that could harm prosperity. Many predictions have proven overly alarmistic in the past, and human ingenuity will likely develop solutions to address climate challenges. Carbon removal technologies and adaptation measures can help managemitigate warmingthe impacts of warming without requiringnecessitating the massive economic disruptions that would result from aggressive emission reduction targets would impose.

They've been sounding the alarm for years, and the truth is, it's already too late. With the 1.5°C warning fast approaching, climate change is inevitable, and all the talk about solutions is just that — talk. Corporations won't change, governments are too busy, and we're on track for severe consequences. Our best option now is to figuredetermine out where to retreat, becauseas waiting for action is futile.

Metaculus Prediction

There's a 50% chance that the Climate Clock will hit zero by August 2029, according to the Metaculus prediction community.


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