Guardian

Only two years left of world’s carbon budget to meet 1.5C target, scientists warn

New York Post

Environment improves as more nations prosper — the greatest polluter is poverty

Metaculus

Climate Clock Hits Zero?

Charles III

Donald Trump

Elon Musk

Joe Biden

Nancy Pelosi

Xi Jinping

Rishi Sunak

Kamala Harris

Justin Trudeau

Narendra Modi

Bill Gates

Pope Francis

Janet Yellen

Emmanuel Macron

Olaf Scholz

Angela Merkel

Yuval Noah Harari

António Guterres

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Barack Obama

Kofi Annan

Michael Mann

James Inhofe

Greta Thunberg

David Attenborough

Giorgia Meloni

Fumio Kishida

Patrick Michaels

Jane Goodall

Bjorn Lomborg

Freeman Dyson

"[C]limate change is just a very, very expensive form of tax."

"I believe in climate change caused by human beings. What I'm skeptical about is the glib notion that it means the end of the world as we know it."

"The clock is no longer just ticking, it is banging."

"There is no long-term prosperity without action on climate change."

"The time for seeking global solutions [to climate change] is running out."

"The climate crisis is the existential threat. That's not hyperbole; it's a fact."

"[W]e are killing our planet."

Climate change is "above all, an existential crisis."

"Climate change is one of the greatest challenges mankind faces."

"If we don't take action, the collapse of our civilisations and the extinction of much of the natural world is on the horizon."

"Humanity is on thin ice — and that ice is melting fast."

"We haven't yet exceeded the bounds of viable human civilisation, but we're getting close."

Is Climate Change an Existential Threat?

Adam Scaife

Paulo Ceppi

Berkeley Earth

ECCC

Russell Vose

Gavin A. Schmidt

NOAA

Zeke Hausfather

Samantha Burgess

Ben Noll

James Hansen

Stephen Leahy

The Met Office

"There is a 7% chance that 2025 will rank as the warmest year on record."

"It's unlikely 2025 will be as hot as 2024."

"Years such as 2025 which aren't dominated by the warming influence of El Niño, should be cooler."

"2025 will be moderately cooler than 2024."

"It is likely that 2025 will not be as hot as recent years."

"Don't count 2025 out in the race for hottest year."

"The global mean temperature in 2025 is expected to surpass the earlier record set during the exceptionally strong 2014-2016 El Niño."

"The high January temperatures have increased the odds of 2025 being the warmest year on record."

Will 2025 Be the Hottest Year Ever Recorded?

Simon Stiell

Jim Skea

World Meteorological Organization

Myles Allen

Sheldon Whitehouse

"At this point it is virtually certain we will blow through [the 1.5C] target."

'"On our current path... we will reach that 1.5-degree limit sometime in the 2030s."

"Without immediate and deep emissions reductions across all sectors, it will be impossible [to limit global warming to 1.5C]"

"We are still nowhere near the scale and pace of emission reductions required to put us on track toward a 1.5C world."

We won't have "extreme cases like of 4 degrees [Celsius] warming," but will "miss the 2-degree goal."

"[C]utting our emissions in half in 10 years only gives us a 50% chance of staying below 1.5 degrees."

Keeping global warming to 1.5C is "entirely doable" and "simply a matter of political willpower."

Will Global Warming Be Limited to 1.5°C or "Well Below" 2°C?

Catherine Rampell

Samantha Gross

The International Energy Agency

Myles McCormick

Fatih Birol

UN Environment Programme

Katrine Petersen

Angela Picciariello

Sultan Ahmed al-Jaber

Steve Pye

Kelly Trout

Aurelien Saussay

Rachel Cleetus

Natalie Jones

Thomas Covert

Will There Be an End to Fossil Fuels, and If So When?

<span>Global surface temperatures in 2024 reached 1.52C above pre-industrial levels for the first time on record, with 1.36C attributed directly to human activities driven by greenhouse gas emissions (900131217, 900131220). While a single year exceeding 1.5C does not constitute a breach of the Paris Agreement, which requires sustained exceedance over decades, scientists estimate human-caused warming could hit 1.5C around 2030.</span

BBC News

Squamish Chief

Global surface temperatures in 2024 reached 1.52C above pre-industrial levels for the first time on record, with 1.36C attributed directly to human activities driven by greenhouse gas emissions (900131217, 900131220). While a single year exceeding 1.5C does not constitute a breach of the Paris Agreement, which requires sustained exceedance over decades, scientists estimate human-caused warming could hit 1.5C around 2030.

<span>The rate of global heating between 2012 and 2024 has doubled compared to levels seen in the 1970s and 1980s, with human-caused warming occurring at approximately 0.27C per decade (900131217, 900131220). Earth's energy imbalance has increased by 25% over the past decade, with oceans absorbing about 91% of excess heat, leading to accelerated sea level rise and marine impacts.</span

The rate of global heating between 2012 and 2024 has doubled compared to levels seen in the 1970s and 1980s, with human-caused warming occurring at approximately 0.27C per decade (900131217, 900131220). Earth's energy imbalance has increased by 25% over the past decade, with oceans absorbing about 91% of excess heat, leading to accelerated sea level rise and marine impacts.

<span>Global mean sea level has risen by around 26mm between 2019 and 2024, more than doubling the long-term rate of 1.8mm per year since the turn of the 20th century (900131217, 900131220). This acceleration is making storm surges more damaging and causing increased coastal erosion, posing threats to humans and coastal ecosystems in low-lying areas worldwide.</span

Global mean sea level has risen by around 26mm between 2019 and 2024, more than doubling the long-term rate of 1.8mm per year since the turn of the 20th century (900131217, 900131220). This acceleration is making storm surges more damaging and causing increased coastal erosion, posing threats to humans and coastal ecosystems in low-lying areas worldwide.

<span>Greenhouse gas emissions reached record highs in 2024, with human activities releasing approximately 53 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent annually over the past decade from fossil fuels, deforestation, and industrial processes (900131217, 900131219). Despite renewable energy growth, emissions from international aviation returned to pre-pandemic levels, and there are no signs of the emissions peak required to limit warming to 1.5C.</span

Yahoo News

Cosmos

Greenhouse gas emissions reached record highs in 2024, with human activities releasing approximately 53 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent annually over the past decade from fossil fuels, deforestation, and industrial processes (900131217, 900131219). Despite renewable energy growth, emissions from international aviation returned to pre-pandemic levels, and there are no signs of the emissions peak required to limit warming to 1.5C.

<span>Scientists emphasize that every fraction of a degree of warming matters, as exceeding 1.5C would expose nearly 1 billion people to water stress, cost an estimated $63 billion in crop damages, and put 14% of species at extinction risk (900131216, 900131222). Professor Joeri Rogelj stated that emissions over the next decade will determine how soon 1.5C is reached and stressed the need for swift reductions to meet Paris Agreement goals.</span

Scientists emphasize that every fraction of a degree of warming matters, as exceeding 1.5C would expose nearly 1 billion people to water stress, cost an estimated $63 billion in crop damages, and put 14% of species at extinction risk (900131216, 900131222). Professor Joeri Rogelj stated that emissions over the next decade will determine how soon 1.5C is reached and stressed the need for swift reductions to meet Paris Agreement goals.

Guardian #1

New York Post #1

Metaculus #0

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Three years left to limit warming to 1.5C, leading scientists warn

Climate change

Environment

While climate concerns are valid, the 1.5C target has always been ambitious and may not be achievable given current global energy needs and economic realities. Many countries still rely heavily on fossil fuels for development and energy security. The focus should be on practical adaptation measures and technological solutions rather than unrealistic emission reduction timelines that could harm economic growth.

<span>While climate concerns are valid, the 1.5C target has always been ambitious and may not be achievable given current global energy needs and economic realities. Many countries still rely heavily on fossil fuels for development and energy security. The focus should be on practical adaptation measures and technological solutions rather than unrealistic emission reduction timelines that could harm economic growth.</span>

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Is the 1.5C limit still in reach? FAQs

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