Reuters

World Entering New Era Nuclear Powers Build Up Arsenals Sipri Think Tank Says 2025 06 15

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

Alexander Lukashenko

William Burns

Dmitry Peskov

Fiona Hill

Metaculus

Sergei Markov

Oleksiy Reznikov

James Stavridis

Dmitry Medvedev

Barry Posen

James Acton

Kevin Ryan

Nicolo Fasola

Matthew Bunn

Steven Pifer

Harry Kazianis

Mikhail Kasyanov

Robert Gates

Mitt Romney

Alexey Zaitsev

Pat Buchanan

Nina Khrushcheva

William Alberque

Fabian Hoffmann

Stephen I. Schwartz

Olga Oliker

Ira Helfand

"I think it's extremely unlikely that he [Putin] would move in that [using tactical nuclear weapons] direction in the current conflict."

"I don't see Putin deciding to use a nuclear weapon."

"There are reasons to believe Moscow would not press the nuclear button."

"Though it is unlikely that Russia will use nuclear weapons in Ukraine, the risks are real."

Putin has sent many signals that "he will use battlefield nuclear weapons from his arsenal of 6,000 such weapons to win the war."

"Well, yes, he [Putin] would [launch a nuclear attack]."

Would Putin Detonate Nuclear Weapons in Ukraine?

Lloyd Austin

Mark Milley

Mike Minihan

Jacob Thornburg

Michael Brenner

Finian Cunningham

Scott Ritter

Ray Dalio

Global Times

Kevin Rudd

Zhao Tong

Stanislaw Koziej

Robert S. Ross

Charles C. Krulak

Michael C. Horowitz

Joseph S. Nye

Qin Gang

Frank Kendall III

Thomas L. Friedman

Marco J. Lyons

"I argue that war is unlikely to occur due to the deep economic ties underlying the great power politics between the two countries."

"War with either [Russia or China] is neither inevitable nor imminent."

"As things currently stand, the US is not prepared to fight and win a war with China over Taiwan."

"A war between the US and China today is no more inevitable than was war between the rising US and the declining United Kingdom a century ago."

"[T]he tension between the United States and China will grow, and competition will intensify; it is inevitable. War, however, is not."

"War is a risk, but it is not inevitable."

"The risk of a military conflict is very serious."

"The smallest misstep by either side [Taipei and Beijing] could ignite a U.S.-China war."

"China is preparing for a war and specifically for a war with the United States."

"The most proximate potential timeframe for war is in the next two years."

"My gut tells me we [the US] will fight [with China] in 2025."

Will There Be a US-China War?

Donald Trump

Joe Biden

Atlantic Council

Negar Mortazavi

J Street

Abbas Araghchi

Michael Rubin

Daniel Shapiro

Kenneth Katzman

Alexander Langlois

Jim Lobe

Jean-Noel Barrot

Mohammed Ghaedi

Beto O Rourke

Ray Takeyh

Douglas London

SpecialEurasia

Ray McGovern

"Despite the heightened tensions, a full-scale war [between the U.S. and Iran] remains unlikely in the immediate term."

"Trump has been clear in his desire to resolve the issue diplomatically and avoid war [with Iran] in the Middle East."

"Despite all the hysteria of war, I'm not really seeing that on the horizon."

"It is highly unlikely that Trump will bomb Iran, not least because he vowed on the presidential campaign trail not to drag the United States into a war."

"The potential of some kind of conflict with Iran escalating into a larger regional war is very real, possibly more real than ever."

"The United States now seems close to a direct conflict that Biden (and Iran) have worked hard to avoid."

"[A] full-scale war is hardly inevitable."

"If they [Iran] don't make a deal [with the US], there will be bombing."

Will There Be a US-Iran War?

Xi Jinping

Boris Johnson

Henry Kissinger

John Mearsheimer

Antony Blinken

Sergey Lavrov

Jens Stoltenberg

Marco Rubio

The New York Times

Chris Van Hollen

The Economist

Rick Scott

White House

Michael Waltz

Tom Cotton

Charles Kupchan

Adam O'Neal

Ramzy Baroud

Gary Olson

Noah Smith

Joseph E. Stiglitz

Mushahid Hussain

Tony Gonzales

Stan Cox

Patrick Lawrence

Dave DeCamp

Tan Kefei

Anthony Faiola

Jude Blanchette

Zhaoqing Li

John Koetsier

Thomas Christensen

Marton Zsurafszky

Global Research

Elliott Abrams

Fredrik Logevall

Dr. Fred Hoffman

Fareed Zakaria

Richard Eskow

China "will not fight a cold war or a hot war with anyone."

"There is no going back to the decoupled, two-bloc global order of the Cold War."

"We're not entering a new Cold War and China is not our adversary, not our enemy."

"There is little prospect of a new Cold War."

"The U.S.-China relationship is frosting over into a nascent cold war."

"The United States appears to have entered a new cold war with both China and Russia."

"The Sino-American competition is in danger of becoming a shallow, petulant parody of a cold war."

"[E]very effort will be made to ignite Cold War, Phase 2."

There's a risk that "a kind of cold war will develop between China and the United States."

Will There Be a New Cold War?

Vladimir Putin

Viktor Mihály Orbán

Steven Cheung

Ulrich Speck

Anatol Lieven

Aaron Blake

Michael Kimmage

Michael Kofman

Tom Donilon

William C. Wohlforth

Gideon Rachman

Dafydd Townley

If Re-elected, Will Trump End the War in Ukraine?

The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) has reported that global nuclear warheads totaled approximately 12,241 in January 2025, with about 9,614 in military stockpiles for potential use and 3,912 deployed with missiles and aircraft.

SIPRI

The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) has reported that global nuclear warheads totaled approximately 12,241 in January 2025, with about 9,614 in military stockpiles for potential use and 3,912 deployed with missiles and aircraft.

China's nuclear arsenal expanded fastest among all nuclear-armed states, growing by approximately 100 warheads annually since 2023 to reach at least 600 warheads by early 2025, while completing around 350 new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) silos.

South China Morning Post

Defence-Blog

China's nuclear arsenal expanded fastest among all nuclear-armed states, growing by approximately 100 warheads annually since 2023 to reach at least 600 warheads by early 2025, while completing around 350 new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) silos.

Russia and the U.S. possess roughly 90 percent of global nuclear weapons, with both nations reportedly implementing modernization programs despite facing technical delays and funding challenges in their respective nuclear upgrade efforts.

Breaking Defense

Russia and the U.S. possess roughly 90 percent of global nuclear weapons, with both nations reportedly implementing modernization programs despite facing technical delays and funding challenges in their respective nuclear upgrade efforts.

The report claims the era of nuclear weapons reductions that lasted since the Cold War's end is concluding, as the pace of warhead dismantlement slows while deployment of new nuclear weapons accelerates across nuclear-armed states.

Al Jazeera

The report claims the era of nuclear weapons reductions that lasted since the Cold War's end is concluding, as the pace of warhead dismantlement slows while deployment of new nuclear weapons accelerates across nuclear-armed states.

The New START treaty between Russia and the U.S. expires in February 2026 with no replacement negotiations underway, potentially leading to uncapped strategic nuclear deployments by both superpowers.

The New START treaty between Russia and the U.S. expires in February 2026 with no replacement negotiations underway, potentially leading to uncapped strategic nuclear deployments by both superpowers.

North Korea assembled approximately 50 nuclear warheads with sufficient fissile material for up to 40 additional weapons, while leader Kim Jong Un called for "limitless" expansion of the country's nuclear program in November 2024.</span

North Korea assembled approximately 50 nuclear warheads with sufficient fissile material for up to 40 additional weapons, while leader Kim Jong Un called for "limitless" expansion of the country's nuclear program in November 2024.

Reuters #0

China's nuclear arsenal expanded fastest among all nuclear-armed states, growing by approximately 100 warheads annually since 2023 to reach at least 600 warheads by early 2025, while completing around 350 new ICBM silos.</span

South China Morning Post #

China's nuclear arsenal expanded fastest among all nuclear-armed states, growing by approximately 100 warheads annually since 2023 to reach at least 600 warheads by early 2025, while completing around 350 new ICBM silos.

Russia and the United States possess roughly 90 percent of global nuclear weapons, with both nations implementing extensive modernization programs despite facing technical delays and funding challenges in their respective nuclear upgrade efforts.</span

Breaking Defense #

SIPRI #

Russia and the United States possess roughly 90 percent of global nuclear weapons, with both nations implementing extensive modernization programs despite facing technical delays and funding challenges in their respective nuclear upgrade efforts.

The era of nuclear weapons reductions that lasted since the Cold War's end is concluding, as the pace of warhead dismantlement slows while deployment of new nuclear weapons accelerates across nuclear-armed states.</span

Al Jazeera #

Reuters #

The era of nuclear weapons reductions that lasted since the Cold War's end is concluding, as the pace of warhead dismantlement slows while deployment of new nuclear weapons accelerates across nuclear-armed states.

The New START treaty between Russia and the United States expires in February 2026 with no replacement negotiations underway, potentially leading to uncapped strategic nuclear deployments by both superpowers.</span

The New START treaty between Russia and the United States expires in February 2026 with no replacement negotiations underway, potentially leading to uncapped strategic nuclear deployments by both superpowers.

The nuclear arms race threatens global security and wastes resources that could address real human needs. Nuclear weapons failed to prevent conflicts in Ukraine, Gaza, and between India and Pakistan, proving they don't guarantee security. Emerging technologies like artificial intelligence and cyber capabilities increase risks of accidental nuclear war through miscalculation or technical failure. The abandonment of arms control agreements creates dangerous instability.

The nuclear arms race threatens global security and wastes resources that could address real human needs. Nuclear weapons failed to prevent conflicts in Ukraine, Gaza, and between India and Pakistan, proving they don't guarantee security. Emerging technologies like artificial intelligence and cyber capabilities increase risks of accidental nuclear war through miscalculation or technical failure. The abandonment of arms control agreements creates dangerous instability.

Nuclear risks grow as new arms race looms—new SIPRI Yearbook out now

World on the cusp of a new nuclear arms race, says SIPRI

Global Nuclear Arsenal Grows as Arms Control Weakens

Governance

Military

Nuclear weapons

Politics

World

Nuclear modernization represents necessary deterrence against growing global threats. China's rapid arsenal expansion and aggressive military posture in the Indo-Pacific requires robust Western nuclear capabilities to maintain strategic stability. Russia's invasion of Ukraine demonstrates the importance of credible nuclear deterrence in preventing further aggression. Modern nuclear systems with improved accuracy and survivability actually reduce risks by ensuring reliable deterrence without requiring massive stockpiles.

Nuclear modernization represents necessary deterrence against growing global threats. China's rapid arsenal expansion and aggressive military posture in the Indo-Pacific requires robust Western nuclear capabilities to maintain strategic stability. Russia's invasion of Ukraine demonstrates the importance of credible nuclear deterrence in preventing further aggression. Modern nuclear systems with improved accuracy and survivability actually reduce risks by ensuring reliable deterrence without requiring massive stockpiles.

Global Nuclear Arsenal Grows as Arms Control Weakens

Global Nuclear Arsenal Grows as Arms Control Weakens

The Spin

The Controversies

Romney

Stavridis

Pifer

Alberque

Buchanan

Hill

Thornburg

Milley

Ritter

Krulak

Rudd

Nye

Tong

Friedman

III

Horowitz

Minihan

SpecialEurasia

Shapiro

Takeyh

Ghaedi

Lobe

Council

London

Trump

Jinping

Kupchan

Stoltenberg

Li

Faiola

Stiglitz

Economist

Olson

Kissinger

Articles on this story

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Global Nuclear Arsenal Grows as Arms Control Weakens

Global Nuclear Arsenal Grows as Arms Control Weakens

The Spin

The Controversies

Romney

Stavridis

Pifer

Alberque

Buchanan

Hill

Thornburg

Milley

Ritter

Krulak

Rudd

Nye

Tong

Friedman

III

Horowitz

Minihan

SpecialEurasia

Shapiro

Takeyh

Ghaedi

Lobe

Council

London

Trump

Jinping

Kupchan

Stoltenberg

Li

Faiola

Stiglitz

Economist

Olson

Kissinger

Articles on this story

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