SIPRI

Nuclear risks grow as new arms race looms—new SIPRI Yearbook out now

SIPRI YEARBOOK 2025 Armaments, Disarmament and International Security Summary

Defence Industry Europe

SIPRI report highlights growing nuclear threat as modernisation accelerates and arms control weakens

Reuters

World Entering New Era Nuclear Powers Build Up Arsenals Sipri Think Tank Says 2025 06 15

Al Jazeera

World on the cusp of a new nuclear arms race, says SIPRI

Breaking Defense

Chinas nuclear arsenal surges 20% in one year, reaching over 600 warheads: SIPRI

Chinadaily

China reaffirms self-defense strategy against nuclear arms race

South China Morning Post

Chinas nuclear stockpile is growing fast, ICBMs may match US, Russia around 2030: SIPRI

Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

Why a nuclear weapons ban would threaten, not save, humanity

English

How I Learned To Stop Worrying And Love The Bomb Opinion 50480173.Htm

Donald Trump

Vladimir Putin

Volodymyr Zelenskyy

Boris Johnson

Viktor Mihály Orbán

Steven Cheung

Ulrich Speck

Anatol Lieven

Aaron Blake

Michael Kimmage

Michael Kofman

Tom Donilon

William C. Wohlforth

Gideon Rachman

Dafydd Townley

Metaculus

If Re-elected, Will Trump End the War in Ukraine?

Alexander Lukashenko

William Burns

Dmitry Peskov

Fiona Hill

Sergei Markov

Oleksiy Reznikov

James Stavridis

Dmitry Medvedev

Barry Posen

James Acton

Kevin Ryan

Nicolo Fasola

Matthew Bunn

Steven Pifer

Harry Kazianis

Mikhail Kasyanov

Robert Gates

Mitt Romney

Alexey Zaitsev

Pat Buchanan

Nina Khrushcheva

William Alberque

Fabian Hoffmann

Stephen I. Schwartz

Olga Oliker

Ira Helfand

"I think it's extremely unlikely that he [Putin] would move in that [using tactical nuclear weapons] direction in the current conflict."

"I don't see Putin deciding to use a nuclear weapon."

"There are reasons to believe Moscow would not press the nuclear button."

"Though it is unlikely that Russia will use nuclear weapons in Ukraine, the risks are real."

Putin has sent many signals that "he will use battlefield nuclear weapons from his arsenal of 6,000 such weapons to win the war."

"Well, yes, he [Putin] would [launch a nuclear attack]."

Would Putin Detonate Nuclear Weapons in Ukraine?

Lloyd Austin

Mark Milley

Mike Minihan

Jacob Thornburg

Michael Brenner

Finian Cunningham

Scott Ritter

Ray Dalio

Kevin Rudd

Zhao Tong

Stanislaw Koziej

Robert S. Ross

Charles C. Krulak

Michael C. Horowitz

Joseph S. Nye

Qin Gang

Frank Kendall III

Thomas L. Friedman

Marco J. Lyons

Global Times

"I argue that war is unlikely to occur due to the deep economic ties underlying the great power politics between the two countries."

"War with either [Russia or China] is neither inevitable nor imminent."

"As things currently stand, the US is not prepared to fight and win a war with China over Taiwan."

"A war between the US and China today is no more inevitable than was war between the rising US and the declining United Kingdom a century ago."

"[T]he tension between the United States and China will grow, and competition will intensify; it is inevitable. War, however, is not."

"War is a risk, but it is not inevitable."

"The risk of a military conflict is very serious."

"The smallest misstep by either side [Taipei and Beijing] could ignite a U.S.-China war."

"China is preparing for a war and specifically for a war with the United States."

"The most proximate potential timeframe for war is in the next two years."

"My gut tells me we [the US] will fight [with China] in 2025."

Will There Be a US-China War?

Joe Biden

Xi Jinping

Henry Kissinger

John Mearsheimer

Antony Blinken

Sergey Lavrov

Jens Stoltenberg

Marco Rubio

Chris Van Hollen

The Economist

Rick Scott

Trump White House

Michael Waltz

Tom Cotton

Charles Kupchan

Adam O'Neal

Ramzy Baroud

Gary Olson

Noah Smith

Joseph E. Stiglitz

Mushahid Hussain

Tony Gonzales

Stan Cox

Patrick Lawrence

Dave DeCamp

Tan Kefei

Anthony Faiola

Jude Blanchette

Zhaoqing Li

John Koetsier

Thomas Christensen

Marton Zsurafszky

Global Research

Elliott Abrams

Fredrik Logevall

Dr. Fred Hoffman

Fareed Zakaria

Richard Eskow

The New York Times

China "will not fight a cold war or a hot war with anyone."

"There is no going back to the decoupled, two-bloc global order of the Cold War."

"We're not entering a new Cold War and China is not our adversary, not our enemy."

"There is little prospect of a new Cold War."

"The U.S.-China relationship is frosting over into a nascent cold war."

"The United States appears to have entered a new cold war with both China and Russia."

"The Sino-American competition is in danger of becoming a shallow, petulant parody of a cold war."

"[E]very effort will be made to ignite Cold War, Phase 2."

There's a risk that "a kind of cold war will develop between China and the United States."

Will There Be a New Cold War?

Atlantic Council

Negar Mortazavi

J Street

Abbas Araghchi

Michael Rubin

Daniel Shapiro

Kenneth Katzman

Alexander Langlois

Jim Lobe

Jean-Noel Barrot

Mohammed Ghaedi

Beto O Rourke

Ray Takeyh

Douglas London

SpecialEurasia

Ray McGovern

"Despite the heightened tensions, a full-scale war [between the U.S. and Iran] remains unlikely in the immediate term."

"Trump has been clear in his desire to resolve the issue diplomatically and avoid war [with Iran] in the Middle East."

"Despite all the hysteria of war, I'm not really seeing that on the horizon."

"It is highly unlikely that Trump will bomb Iran, not least because he vowed on the presidential campaign trail not to drag the United States into a war."

"The potential of some kind of conflict with Iran escalating into a larger regional war is very real, possibly more real than ever."

"The United States now seems close to a direct conflict that Biden (and Iran) have worked hard to avoid."

"[A] full-scale war is hardly inevitable."

"If they [Iran] don't make a deal [with the US], there will be bombing."

Will There Be a US-Iran War?

China's nuclear arsenal expanded fastest among all nuclear-armed states, growing by approximately 100 warheads annually since 2023 to reach at least 600 warheads by early 2025, while completing around 350 new ICBM silos.</span

Defence-Blog

China's nuclear arsenal expanded fastest among all nuclear-armed states, growing by approximately 100 warheads annually since 2023 to reach at least 600 warheads by early 2025, while completing around 350 new ICBM silos.

Russia and the United States possess roughly 90 percent of global nuclear weapons, with both nations implementing extensive modernization programs despite facing technical delays and funding challenges in their respective nuclear upgrade efforts.</span

Russia and the United States possess roughly 90 percent of global nuclear weapons, with both nations implementing extensive modernization programs despite facing technical delays and funding challenges in their respective nuclear upgrade efforts.

The era of nuclear weapons reductions that lasted since the Cold War's end is concluding, as the pace of warhead dismantlement slows while deployment of new nuclear weapons accelerates across nuclear-armed states.</span

The era of nuclear weapons reductions that lasted since the Cold War's end is concluding, as the pace of warhead dismantlement slows while deployment of new nuclear weapons accelerates across nuclear-armed states.

The New START treaty between Russia and the United States expires in February 2026 with no replacement negotiations underway, potentially leading to uncapped strategic nuclear deployments by both superpowers.</span

The New START treaty between Russia and the United States expires in February 2026 with no replacement negotiations underway, potentially leading to uncapped strategic nuclear deployments by both superpowers.

North Korea assembled approximately 50 nuclear warheads with sufficient fissile material for up to 40 additional weapons, while leader Kim Jong Un called for "limitless" expansion of the country's nuclear program in November 2024.</span

North Korea assembled approximately 50 nuclear warheads with sufficient fissile material for up to 40 additional weapons, while leader Kim Jong Un called for "limitless" expansion of the country's nuclear program in November 2024.

Global Nuclear Arsenal Grows as Arms Control Weakens

Global Nuclear risksArsenal growGrows as newArms armsControl race looms—new SIPRI YearbookWeakens

The Spin

The Controversies

Romney

Stavridis

Pifer

Alberque

Buchanan

Hill

Thornburg

Milley

Ritter

Krulak

Rudd

Nye

Tong

Friedman

III

Horowitz

Minihan

Jinping

Kupchan

Stoltenberg

Li

Faiola

Stiglitz

Economist

Olson

Kissinger

SpecialEurasia

Shapiro

Takeyh

Ghaedi

Lobe

Council

London

Trump

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