The slight decrease in global displacement numbers represents genuine progress as millions of Syrians voluntarily return home after Assad's fall, demonstrating that political solutions can resolve refugee crises. The record resettlement numbers of 188,800 people show the international community's commitment to burden-sharing.
The displacement crisis remains catastrophic, with 123.2 million people still uprooted, while funding cuts from wealthy nations abandon vulnerable populations. Many returns are forced deportations rather than voluntary, and conflicts in Sudan, Ukraine, and Myanmar continue generating massive new displacement.
There's a 50% chance that at least 530,000 noncitizens will be removed from the U.S. for fiscal years 2026 through 2028, according to the Metaculus prediction community.