South China Morning Post

China pledges boost to law enforcement cooperation with Pacific Island nations

AnewZ

China pledges climate support for Pacific Island Nations amid rising regional influence

10535301

Global Times

Joint Statement of the Third China-Pacific Island Countries

Third China-PICs Foreign Ministers' Meeting kicks off, first time event is held in person in China

CGTN

China and Pacific Island nations strengthen trade ties

Chinadaily

Ties with Pacific Island nations exemplary: China Daily editorial

Joint Statement of the Third China-Pacific Island Countries Foreign Ministers Meeting_Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China

Donald Trump

Tsai Ing-wen

Csis

Marco Rubio

Ian Bremmer

Michael McCaul

Ministry of National Defense of Taiwan

Bonnie S. Glaser

Mark Milley

Charles Glaser

Denny Roy

Mike Studeman

Oriana Skylar Mastro

Henry Olsen

Lyle Goldstein

Bates Gill

Minghao Zhao

Metaculus

Joseph Wu

Jessica Chen Weiss

Global Guardian

FischerKing

CounterPoint Global

Kerry Brown

Adithia Kusno

Palmer Luckey

Ely Ratner

Philip Davidson

"China has zero interest to invade Taiwan and has never threatened to invade Taiwan."

“I think we’ll be just fine with China. China doesn’t want to do that [invade Taiwan].”

"There's no indications or warnings of anything imminent [China attacking Taiwan] at this time."

a P.L.A. takeover of Taiwan is not inevitable nor, perhaps, even likely in the next few years."

"I wouldn't say war is likely in the next few years, but I wouldn't say it's unlikely over the next couple of decades."

"I think they (the Chinese) have intention, but absolutely I think we can get to the end of this decade without them committing major aggression against Taiwan."

"[T]here might indeed be some greater willingness by Beijing to coerce (or even invade) Taiwan during a Trump administration."

"An invasion of Taiwan could happen within this decade."

"Global Guardian thinks that the window for conflict or a blockade is now open, with that window most likely remaining open between 2024 and 2028."

"The idea is that anything we are working on, anything that we are investing in, needs to be built with the assumption that sometime in 2027, China is going to move on Taiwan."

“Taiwan is clearly one of [China's] ambitions before that and I think the threat is manifest during this decade — in fact, in the next six years.”

Will China Invade Taiwan by 2030?

Lloyd Austin

Mike Minihan

Jacob Thornburg

Michael Brenner

Finian Cunningham

Scott Ritter

Ray Dalio

Kevin Rudd

Zhao Tong

Stanislaw Koziej

Robert S. Ross

Charles C. Krulak

Michael C. Horowitz

Joseph S. Nye

Qin Gang

Frank Kendall III

Thomas L. Friedman

Marco J. Lyons

"I argue that war is unlikely to occur due to the deep economic ties underlying the great power politics between the two countries."

"War with either [Russia or China] is neither inevitable nor imminent."

"As things currently stand, the US is not prepared to fight and win a war with China over Taiwan."

"A war between the US and China today is no more inevitable than was war between the rising US and the declining United Kingdom a century ago."

"[T]he tension between the United States and China will grow, and competition will intensify; it is inevitable. War, however, is not."

"War is a risk, but it is not inevitable."

"The risk of a military conflict is very serious."

"The smallest misstep by either side [Taipei and Beijing] could ignite a U.S.-China war."

"China is preparing for a war and specifically for a war with the United States."

"The most proximate potential timeframe for war is in the next two years."

"My gut tells me we [the US] will fight [with China] in 2025."

Will There Be a US-China War?

Centre for Economics and Business Research

Capital Economics

S&P Global

Goldman Sachs

George Magnus

Eswar Prasad

Nathan Sheets

Desmond Lachman

Statista

Rob Subbaraman

JCER

Chris Giles

"China's nominal gross domestic product is unlikely to surpass that of the U.S. in the next few decades."

"This idea of China becoming the world's biggest economy may not happen, actually."

"China probably won't ever overtake the US economy on a sustained basis."

"The likelihood of the prediction that China's GDP will one day overtake that of the U.S. is declining."

"If China grows by a more moderate 4% over the long term, its GDP will exceed that of the US eight years later, in 2046."

"China is forecast to overtake the U.S. as the world’s largest economy by around 2035."

"China will overtake the US as the world's top economy in about 2035 with a high probability."

"[T]he size of China's economy in USD terms will overtake the US in 2028."

"China will overtake the United States to become the world's biggest economy in 2028."

Will China's GDP Overtake the US, And If So When?

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China hosted the third Foreign Ministers' Meeting with 11 Pacific Island nations in Xiamen on May 28, 2025, marking the first in-person gathering since the dialogue mechanism was established in 2021, with representatives from Kiribati, Niue, Tonga, and other Pacific nations attending.

Al Jazeera

China hosted the third Foreign Ministers' Meeting with 11 Pacific Island nations in Xiamen on May 28, 2025, marking the first in-person gathering since the dialogue mechanism was established in 2021, with representatives from Kiribati, Niue, Tonga, and other Pacific nations attending.

During the summit, China announced a $2 million investment for climate change initiatives in Pacific Island nations, focusing on renewable energy, agriculture, fisheries, low-carbon infrastructure, and tourism development projects over the next three years.</span

During the summit, China announced a $2 million investment for climate change initiatives in Pacific Island nations, focusing on renewable energy, agriculture, fisheries, low-carbon infrastructure, and tourism development projects over the next three years.

The meeting resulted in agreements to promote cooperation between China's Belt and Road Initiative and the 2050 Strategy for the Blue Pacific Continent, with emphasis on infrastructure development, trade enhancement, and disaster management capabilities.</span

The meeting resulted in agreements to promote cooperation between China's Belt and Road Initiative and the 2050 Strategy for the Blue Pacific Continent, with emphasis on infrastructure development, trade enhancement, and disaster management capabilities.

China pledged to implement 100 'small but beautiful' projects across the Pacific region, shifting focus from mega-infrastructure to smaller sustainable developments aimed at improving local living conditions and climate resilience.</span

China pledged to implement 100 'small but beautiful' projects across the Pacific region, shifting focus from mega-infrastructure to smaller sustainable developments aimed at improving local living conditions and climate resilience.

Pacific Island nations reaffirmed the one-China policy, acknowledging Taiwan as part of China's territory, while three nations maintaining diplomatic ties with Taiwan - Marshall Islands, Palau, and Tuvalu - were not present at the meeting.</span

Pacific Island nations reaffirmed the one-China policy, acknowledging Taiwan as part of China's territory, while three nations maintaining diplomatic ties with Taiwan - Marshall Islands, Palau, and Tuvalu - were not present at the meeting.

The summit also addressed regional security concerns, with China proposing expanded law enforcement cooperation and police training programs, building on existing security arrangements with nations like Solomon Islands.

The summit also addressed regional security concerns, with China proposing expanded law enforcement cooperation and police training programs, building on existing security arrangements with nations like Solomon Islands.

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AnewZ #

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Global Times #

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Chinadaily #

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The summit addressed regional security concerns, with China proposing expanded law enforcement cooperation and police training programs, building on existing security arrangements with nations like Solomon Islands.</span

Al Jazeera #3883

The summit addressed regional security concerns, with China proposing expanded law enforcement cooperation and police training programs, building on existing security arrangements with nations like Solomon Islands.

The summit represents China's strategic push to expand its influence in the Pacific region, using climate aid and infrastructure projects as tools for diplomatic leverage. The modest $2 million commitment masks broader geopolitical ambitions, including efforts to isolate Taiwan and establish security footholds near critical maritime routes. This expansion challenges traditional Western partnerships and regional security arrangements.

The summit represents China's strategic push to expand its influence in the Pacific region, using climate aid and infrastructure projects as tools for diplomatic leverage. The modest $2 million commitment masks broader geopolitical ambitions, including efforts to isolate Taiwan and establish security footholds near critical maritime routes. This expansion challenges traditional Western partnerships and regional security arrangements.

China hosts Pacific Island nations in bid to bolster diplomatic, trade ties

Climate Change

The US-China Conflict

China Pledges $2M Climate Aid at Pacific Islands Summit

China

Papua New Guinea

Politics

Solomon Islands

Vanuatu

China's increased engagement with Pacific Island nations demonstrates genuine commitment to addressing climate change and supporting sustainable development in vulnerable regions. The targeted assistance and practical projects show Beijing's understanding of local needs and priorities, while respecting the autonomy of Pacific nations to make their own development choices. This partnership offers a viable alternative to Western aid programs that have been inconsistent or come with stringent conditions.

China's increased engagement with Pacific Island nations demonstrates genuine commitment to addressing climate change and supporting sustainable development in vulnerable regions. The targeted assistance and practical projects show Beijing's understanding of local needs and priorities, while respecting the autonomy of Pacific nations to make their own development choices. This partnership offers a viable alternative to Western aid programs that have been inconsistent or come with stringent conditions.

by Fangzheng Sun

China Is Now An Empire

There is a 9% chance China's GDP will Overtake the US Before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

There is a 9% chance China's GDP will Overtake the US Before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

China Pledges $2M Climate Aid at Pacific Islands Summit

China Pledges $2M Climate Aid at Pacific Islands Summit

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China Pledges $2M Climate Aid at Pacific Islands Summit

China Pledges $2M Climate Aid at Pacific Islands Summit

The Spin

Metaculus Prediction

The Controversies

Global

Trump

Milley

Glaser

Glaser

Ratner

Goldstein

Rubio

Guardian

Luckey

Davidson

Thornburg

Milley

Ritter

Krulak

Rudd

Nye

Tong

Friedman

III

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Times

Subbaraman

Research

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