Metaculus

Will any country besides the United Kingdom leave the European Union, before 2030?

Rachel Reeves

Nick Thomas-Symonds

Maros Sefcovic

David Henig

Matthew Pennycook

Douglas Alexander

The Prime Minister's Office (UK)

"We don't currently have any plans to join PEM."

Keir Starmer's government is "not seeking to participate in it at the present time."

"PEM rules are in the process of being updated, and the UK probably couldn't accede until that process is complete."

The government is "absolutely happy" to look at the proposals.

"[I]t is an issue that we are open to looking at."

Allowing the UK to join the Pan-Euro-Mediterranean convention was "something we could consider."

Will the UK Join the Pan-Euro-Mediterranean Convention?

The latest Eurobarometer survey, conducted across 27 EU member states with 26,368 face-to-face interviews, reveals that 52% of Europeans trust the EU, marking the highest level since 2007, with young people aged 15-24 showing the strongest confidence at 59%.</span

Europa

The latest Eurobarometer survey, conducted across 27 EU member states with 26,368 face-to-face interviews, reveals that 52% of Europeans trust the EU, marking the highest level since 2007, with young people aged 15-24 showing the strongest confidence at 59%.

Support for the euro currency has reached unprecedented levels, with 74% of all EU citizens and 83% of eurozone residents backing the European economic and monetary union, despite divided opinions on current economic conditions where 44% view the economy positively and 48% negatively.</span

Support for the euro currency has reached unprecedented levels, with 74% of all EU citizens and 83% of eurozone residents backing the European economic and monetary union, despite divided opinions on current economic conditions where 44% view the economy positively and 48% negatively.

The European Union has approved a substantial 150-billion-euro arms fund, responding to growing security concerns, with 81% of respondents favoring a common defense policy among member states — the highest level of support since 2004.

The Business Standard

US News & World Report

The European Union has approved a substantial 150-billion-euro arms fund, responding to growing security concerns, with 81% of respondents favoring a common defense policy among member states — the highest level of support since 2004.

In response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, 77% of European respondents consider it a threat to EU security, while 72% support economic sanctions against Russia, demonstrating strong backing for the EU's Ukraine policy.</span

In response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, 77% of European respondents consider it a threat to EU security, while 72% support economic sanctions against Russia, demonstrating strong backing for the EU's Ukraine policy.

Trust in EU institutions significantly outweighs confidence in national governments, with trust in the EU being higher than that in the national governments by 15 percentage points. The highest trust in EU was recorded in the Western Balkan countries.

Eunews

European Western Balkans

Trust in EU institutions significantly outweighs confidence in national governments, with trust in the EU being higher than that in the national governments by 15 percentage points. The highest trust in EU was recorded in the Western Balkan countries.

The survey indicated strong backing for further EU integration in security and defence, with 81% supporting a common policy among member states — the highest level since 2004. It reportedly showed Russia's invasion of Ukraine as "the most important issue at EU level.”

Global Banking And Finance Review

Baltic News Network

The survey indicated strong backing for further EU integration in security and defence, with 81% supporting a common policy among member states — the highest level since 2004. It reportedly showed Russia's invasion of Ukraine as "the most important issue at EU level.”

Metaculus #0

The Business Standard #

US News & World Report #

Europa #

The European Union has approved a substantial 150-billion-euro arms fund, responding to growing security concerns, with 81% of respondents favoring a common defense policy among member states - the highest level of support since 2004.</span

The European Union has approved a substantial 150-billion-euro arms fund, responding to growing security concerns, with 81% of respondents favoring a common defense policy among member states - the highest level of support since 2004.

Trust in EU institutions significantly outweighs confidence in national governments, with only 36% of respondents expressing trust in their domestic leadership, highlighting a notable gap in institutional confidence.</span

Trust in EU institutions significantly outweighs confidence in national governments, with only 36% of respondents expressing trust in their domestic leadership, highlighting a notable gap in institutional confidence.

The survey reveals that 88% of Europeans advocate for increased rules-based cooperation between countries, while 78% express concern about the EU's defense and security outlook for the next five years.</span

The survey reveals that 88% of Europeans advocate for increased rules-based cooperation between countries, while 78% express concern about the EU's defense and security outlook for the next five years.

The significant gap between trust in EU institutions versus national governments signals potential democratic deficits at domestic levels. The massive arms fund approval and focus on defense might indicate a concerning shift away from the EU's traditional soft power approach, while economic divisions between member states remain substantial despite surface-level unity.

The significant gap between trust in EU institutions versus national governments signals potential democratic deficits at domestic levels. The massive arms fund approval and focus on defense might indicate a concerning shift away from the EU's traditional soft power approach, while economic divisions between member states remain substantial despite surface-level unity.

Trust in European Union at highest since 2007, poll shows

Eunews #

Italians trust EU institutions more than their own government

EU Trust Hits 20-Year High Amid Global Challenges

Europe

Governance

Politics

Despite global upheaval and rising populism, Europeans increasingly recognize the EU's indispensable global role. Trust in the Union has grown while faith in national governments crumbles, revealing a profound truth: In an era of transnational challenges — from climate change to AI — Europe's strength lies not in fragmented nationalism but in unified action.

Despite global upheaval and rising populism, Europeans increasingly recognize the EU's indispensable global role. Trust in the Union has grown while faith in national governments crumbles, revealing a profound truth: In an era of transnational challenges — from climate change to AI — Europe's strength lies not in fragmented nationalism but in unified action.

Veriangroup

Trust in the EU, national parliament and national government

EuroNews

Europeans want a stronger EU in global affairs but not as top priority, poll shows

The latest Eurobarometer poll may try to paint a picture of unity, but it cannot conceal the rising tide of rebellion across Europe. From Paris to Budapest, patriotic and conservative forces are surging, rejecting EU overreach, mass migration, and elite arrogance. Brussels may cling to its illusions, but the people are awake — and they are taking Europe back.

The latest Eurobarometer poll may try to paint a picture of unity, but it cannot conceal the rising tide of rebellion across Europe. From Paris to Budapest, patriotic and conservative forces are surging, rejecting EU overreach, mass migration, and elite arrogance. Brussels may cling to its illusions, but the people are awake — and they are taking Europe back.

Newsmax

Karoleva: For My American Friends - Europe Is Not Lost

Modern Diplomacy

The Rise of the Far Right, Euroscepticism, and the Future of EU Foreign Policy

There is an 11% chance that any country will trigger article 50 to leave the European Union, before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

There is an 11% chance that any country will trigger article 50 to leave the European Union, before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.

EU Trust Hits 20-Year High Amid Global Challenges

EU Trust Hits 20-Year High Amid Global Challenges

The Spin

Metaculus Prediction

The Controversies

Thomas-Symonds

Pennycook

Henig

Reeves

Alexander

Sefcovic

Articles on this story

Sign Up for Our Free Newsletters
Sign Up for Our Free Newsletters

EU Trust Hits 20-Year High Amid Global Challenges

EU Trust Hits 20-Year High Amid Global Challenges

The Spin

Metaculus Prediction

The Controversies

Thomas-Symonds

Pennycook

Henig

Reeves

Alexander

Sefcovic

Articles on this story

Sign Up for Our Free NewslettersSign Up for Our Free Newsletters

Sign Up for Our Free Newsletters
Sign Up for Our Free Newsletters