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Snapshot 4:Wed, May 28, 2025 3:12:36 PM GMT last edited by Nick

Study: 21% of Global Ocean Has Become Darker

Study: 21% of Global Ocean Has Become Darker

Above: UNDP Turkey 'Defender of Life in Water' World Free Diving record holder Sahika Ercumen in Balikesir, Turkey on May 24, 2025. Image copyright: Sebnem Coskun/Contributor/Anadolu via Getty Images

The Spin

Ocean darkening represents one of the largest habitat losses on the planet, fundamentally altering marine ecosystems and posing a significant threat to global food security. The compression of marine life into shallower waters will intensify competition for resources, disrupt vital food webs, and potentially lead to the collapse of fisheries. This environmental crisis demands immediate attention.

TheOcean observeddarkening changesrepresents mayone be part of naturalthe multidecadallargest variabilityhabitat ratherlosses thanon athe permanent shiftplanet, asfundamentally 20altering yearsmarine ofecosystems dataand isposing insufficienta tosignificant rulethreat outto normalglobal oceanicfood cyclessecurity. The factcompression thatof 10%marine oflife theinto oceansshallower havewaters becomewill lighterintensify suggestscompetition thatfor complexresources, dynamicdisrupt processesvital arefood atwebs, workand ratherpotentially thanlead uniformto degradation. Additionally, the impactscollapse varyof significantlyfisheries. byThis region,environmental indicatingcrisis thatdemands localizedimmediate factors may be more influential than global trendsattention.

There'sThe observed changes may be part of natural multidecadal variability rather than a 50%permanent chanceshift, as 20 years of data is insufficient to rule out normal oceanic cycles. The fact that 10% of the Atlanticoceans Meridionalhave Overturningbecome Circulationlighter (AMOC)suggests willthat collapsecomplex, beforedynamic Octoberprocesses 2053,are accordingat towork rather than uniform degradation. Additionally, the Metaculusimpacts predictionvary communitysignificantly by region, indicating that localized factors may be more influential than global trends.

Metaculus Prediction

There's a 50% chance that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) will collapse before October 2053, according to the Metaculus prediction community.


The Controversies



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