Trump's patience with Putin is running thin. He provided the Russian leader with a golden opportunity but Putin has yet to shift gears. Trump is strongly considering additional sanctions on Russia, though a decision has yet to be reached.
Ukraine remains committed to achieving a ceasefire, but this cannot come at the expense of giving up territory not currently controlled by Russia. Ukraine is confident that the U.S. supports it in this.
Russia much prefers to settle this conflict through negotiations, which it has engaged in seriously, but a resolution can only be achieved if the root causes are settled.
There's a 50% chance there will be a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine by February 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.