Trump's patience with Putin is running thin. Having provided the Russian leader with a golden opportunity, Putin has yet to shift gears. The president is strongly considering additional sanctions on Russia, though a decision has yet to be reached.
Ukraine remains committed to achieving a ceasefire, but this cannot come at the expense of giving up territory not currently controlled by Russia. Ukraine is confident that the U.S. is supportive of this position.
Russia much prefers to settle this conflict through negotiation, which it has engaged in seriously, but a resolution can only be achieved if the root causes are settled.
There's a 50% chance there will be a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine by February 2026, according to the Metaculus prediction community.