Trump Threatens A 50 Tariff On Eu Goods Starting In Jun
BloombergMAY 21
Trump Floats 50% Tariffs on EU, 25% on Apple
Above: iPhone 16 smartphones at an Apple store in the Brooklyn borough of New York, on May 23, 2025. Image copyright: Yuki Iwamura/Contributor/Bloomberg via Getty Images
The Spin
Pro-Trump narrative
Trump is using every tool in his toolkit to repair America’s fractured industrial policy and standing in the world. The EU has no problem employing protectionism domestically and must be prepared to present a real plan to lower trade barriers to avoid 50% rates. Apple and the EU must prove they are invested in fair trade and helping American workers succeed if they want unfettered access to the U.S. market.
Anti-Trump narrative
The arbitrary and capricious nature of Trump's tariff policy is once again laid bare. Threatening to economically decimate a huge trading partner and massive consumer electronics giant unless they give in to every demand from Trump will be economically devastating and harm the U.S. on the world stage. Expecting Apple to uproot its staggeringly large supply chains on a whim and these EU tariffs are examples of Trump's disastrous leadership.
Metaculus Prediction
There is a 50% chance that the average tariff on goods entering the United States for Q4 2025 will be at least 8.05%, according to the Metaculus prediction community.