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Snapshot 11:Wed, May 21, 2025 10:05:27 AM GMT last edited by Kani

US Intel: Israel Prepares Possible Strike on Iran Nuclear Facilities

US Intel: Israel Prepares Possible Strike on Iran Nuclear Facilities

Image copyright: An Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) speed boat is sailing along the Persian Gulf during the IRGC marine parade to commemorate Persian Gulf National Day, near the Bushehr nuclear power plant, on April 29, 2024.

The Spin

The military option remains the only reliable way to stop Iran's nuclear program. Iran is at its weakest point in decades following Israeli strikes on its missile facilities and air defenses, combined with sanctions and the decimation of regional proxies. This presents a crucial window of opportunity to eliminate the nuclear threat before any deal legitimizes Iran's enrichment capabilities.

Israel sees this moment as a critical window of opportunity to neutralize Iran's nuclear threat while it's weakened. Any deal that allows Iran to maintain enrichment capabilities poses an existential danger that must be prevented through military action if necessary. The Begin Doctrine requires taking preemptive action against nuclear threats before they fully materialize.

Israel cannot afford to wait and rely on diplomatic agreements that may only temporarily restrict Iran's nuclear capabilities. Given Iran's weakened state and degraded air defenses, there is a critical window of opportunity to eliminate the existential threat posed by its nuclear program through decisive military action. The Begin Doctrine requires preventing hostile states from obtaining nuclear weapons before it's too late.

Israel sees a critical window of opportunity to strike Iran while it's at its weakest military position in decades, following the bombing of missile facilities and air defenses in October. The current Iranian regime poses an existential threat that cannot be addressed through diplomatic means alone, and any deal that allows Iran to maintain enrichment capabilities would be insufficient for Israel's security needs.

Diplomatic negotiations offer the best path forward to peacefully limit Iran's nuclear activities. Military strikes would only minimally set back the program while risking a broader regional conflict. Iran has legitimate rights to peaceful nuclear technology under international law, and a negotiated agreement with strict monitoring would be more effective than military action in preventing weapons development.

Diplomatic negotiations remain the best path forward, as military strikes would risk broader regional conflict and only temporarily set back Iran's nuclear program. Iran has legitimate rights to peaceful nuclear technology under international law and demands for complete dismantlement are unrealistic. The focus should be on verifiable limits and monitoring.

Military strikes would be dangerously destabilizing and likely ineffective at permanently setting back Iran's nuclear program. Diplomatic negotiations offer the best path forward, with polls showing 69% of Americans prefer a negotiated agreement limiting Iran's program to peaceful purposes under strict monitoring rather than military action that risks regional war.

A diplomatic solution remains viable and preferable to military action, with Iran showing willingness to negotiate despite challenging conditions. The Iranian nuclear program is intended for peaceful purposes, and Tehran maintains its legitimate right to enrich uranium under international law. Military strikes would only temporarily set back the program while risking a broader regional conflict.

Metaculus Prediction

There is a 50% chance that Iran will possess a nuclear weapon before 2030, according to the Metaculus prediction community.


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